680
FNUS73 KMPX 300946
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Stanton Prairie...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
446 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
There will be a window of favorable weather to get out and burn prior
to the arrival of showers and thunderstorms later today. That round of
storms is expected to move into the New Richmond area between 7pm and
9pm, though you could start seeing some light rain out ahead of the
storms as early as 5pm. Winds will be light this morning, but increase
to between 10 and 15 mph out of the east this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 66.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /19700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /41100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 mph shifting to the south 8 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                            SCH CHC DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH CHC DEF DEF DEF
Temp............50  52  55  58  62  63  64  65  63  61  61  57
RH..............73  68  64  60  54  53  56  54  60  66  71  79
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   6   7   8   10  13  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   9   12  14  16  18  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   9   7   7   8   12  13  17  18  15  16  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    west 12 to 15 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 16 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the west 21 to 25 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (113000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (61400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 29 mph increasing to 23 to 30 mph in
                    the afternoon, then shifting to the northwest
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Griesinger
Requested by...Tracy Ronnander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412714.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tracy_ronnander@fws.gov