Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151236
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Burn Unit 10...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will steadily increase throughout the day, reaching 15-20
mph by late evening. Winds will also gradually shift from NW to W
to SW today. A mix of sun and clouds is expected around the
Sherburne Wildlife Refuge today, with min RH bottoming out in the
mid 30s. If clouds clear out more than forecast, we could see
higher temps and lower RH values. No significant precipitation is
expected in the next 7 days.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........37 at ignition...Max 52.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 9 to 13 mph
                    increasing to around 14 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /18600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /98200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph increasing to around 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  40  43  45  47  48  50  51  50  49  47  46
RH..............81  75  65  58  52  49  44  39  40  39  40  42
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  12  12  13  13  14  14  14  13  14  16
20 FT wind gust.14  15  17  18  18  20  20  21  21  20  21  25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.3 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.2 1.4 0.8 1.1
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.15  17  20  18  20  21  23  25  25  21  20  21
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 14 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (93000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (14400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 23 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Max 44.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (41500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (136900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Robert Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406994.0/MPX
.DELDT 03/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Robert_Bengson@fws.gov


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