National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMQT 141843
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
243 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon
especially towards the Wisconsin border.
- Dry and mostly clear conditions continue overnight while winds
  turn calmer.
- Mostly dry weather through Tuesday. RHs fall to 20-30% in the
interior west Sunday and Monday, causing some fire weather concern.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes during the
midweek, causing widespread rain showers.
- Chances of precipitation remain probable (~50%) into the late-
week, though uncertainty exists on timing, intensity, and
precipitation type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Weakening surface low pressure over the lower Great Lakes will
continue its eastward trek into the evening while surface high
pressure continues to build in from the Northern Plains. Water vapor
imagery reveals plenty of dry midlevel air aloft, while visible
satellite shows mostly sunny skies across much of the UP. Patchy
lower stratus is still apparent across Lake Superior, hugging the
shorelines of the western Keweenaw as well as Alger and Luce
counties amid breezy NW flow. Cloudiness and cool onshore flow will
keep temperatures in the lower/mid 40s - and even upper 30s - right
along the Superior shoreline. Away from Superior, we are still on
track to see highs ranging in the mid 50s (eastern UP and Keweenaw)
to mid 60s (central, western UP).

Meanwhile, our main concern continues to be the elevated fire
weather risk across portions of the UP. NW winds across the eastern
UP have come in stronger than previously expected, perhaps owing to
that longer fetch off of Superior or more efficient mixing than
model soundings would suggest. Gusts around 20 mph are common there,
but confidence in 20-25mph gusts remains higher across the central
and western UP with model soundings continue to indicate mixing to
at least the 850mb level. Dewpoints are responding in kind, already
falling into the lower to mid 30s across the south-central UP and
into the mid/upper 30s away from Superior in the eastern UP. Across
the area with the going SPS (our WI border counties), we are still
on track to see pockets of RH dropping to around 25% this afternoon
while remaining mainly above 40% elsewhere. Don`t burn!

High pressure will continue the dry conditions tonight, but a subtle
shortwave grazing the perimeter of the ridge aloft should drag
additional lower to midlevel cloud cover across Superior. This may
be able to move across the northern half of the UP as well. Expect
mostly clear skies elsewhere, with lows ranging in the mid 30s as
winds turn light.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The story of the week ahead`s weather will be the dry weather to
begin the week ahead of widespread showers thanks to the passage of
a strong low pressure system in the midweek. The details on the late
week weather are a bit murky but generally active and cooler weather
is to be expected into the third weekend of April.

Aloft, 500mb ridging will build over the UP on Monday as a closed
500mb low is kicked from the Desert Southwest into the Central
Plains by a trough over British Columbia. The closed low will be the
driver of weather later in the week, but in the meantime, mostly
clear skies are expected Monday and Monday night under a surface
high of around 1018mb. This will warm highs across the southern half
of the UP into the low to mid 60s with 50s in the north half.
Enhanced mixing will allow for dew points and RHs to drop
considerably as much of the interior UP will see minimum RHs in the
20% range Monday afternoon. Winds mainly under 10 mph with gusts
around 15 mph should keep fire weather concerns capped somewhat,
though if any fires do occur, CAMs are suggesting some lake breezes
are possible especially in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Under
still mostly clear skies, temperatures fall to the low to mid 30s
overnight Monday. Tuesday also appears mostly devoid of
precipitation, though RHs wont fall quite as much given increasing
clouds making mixing less efficient.

As mentioned before, a midlevel closed low will move east of the
Rockies, causing lee cyclogenesis. While ensembles have been
quite consistent in a track over the Upper Peninsula, trends
over the past day or so of guidance have slowed the approach
considerably, with the parent low now only making its approach
late Wednesday into Thursday. The low will be weakening with
time, as the 00Z Euro ensemble mean brings it from 989mb over
central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon to 1004 mb over northern Lake
Michigan late Wednesday into early Thursday. Confidence is
still high in a soaking rain with this system as Gulf of Mexico
moisture pours in from the south, with the NAEFS even showing a
99th climo-percentile vapor transport. This translates into
good coverage of QPF, as even just the 25th percentile of LREF
accumulated precip is around 1 inch with the 75th percentile
around 1.5-2 inches. Given the ongoing drought conditions across
the eastern and western thirds of the UP, hydro concerns should
still be low, though this is a certain relief for fire weather
concerns. The system will also bring with it gusty winds as the
Euro brings gales over Lake Superior and 30-70% chances of wind
gusts over land in the 35-40 mph range. The GEFS is somewhat
lower, with probabilities of 25 mph or higher sustained winds
really only being shown over the Keweenaw Peninsula. This
forecast will attempt to bridge the gap between those solutions,
but a worst case scenario (10% or less chance) of wind gusts up
to 40+ mph is not out of the realm of possibility if the NBM is
to be believed.

NBM PoPs show that widespread showers will taper off somewhat
Thursday, but as the GFS 500mb plots show multiple 500mb shortwaves
following the passage of the low, precipitation may linger into the
weekend, especially as LREF mean accumulated precip climbs steadily
(a pattern common in wet patterns with significant ensemble spread).
One thing to watch with the late week precipitation relative to the
mid-week system will be precip type, as the LREF shows some members
with snow as soon as Thursday morning. Uncertainty is high at this
time, but given the assortment of ensemble accumulated snowfall
solutions, winter lovers may be getting one more shot at some
accumulation by the end of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR prevails for the forecast period. Skies are largely clearing out
this afternoon, with just some fair weather cumulus beginning to pop
up on satellite. Additional patchy, midlevel cloud cover looks to
stream across Lake Superior into tonight, mainly impacting CMX and
SAW, but restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, expect NW winds
at around 8-12 knots today to turn light and variable overnight
before increasing out of the NW at 8-12kts again Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Through Monday evening, ridging will keep wind gusts below 20 kt. As
a strong low begins to eject out of the Rockies Monday night, the
enhanced pressure gradient will cause northeasterly and easterly
wind gusts up to 30 kt through Tuesday morning. As the low
approaches Lake Superior Wednesday, gales are likely (50+%), though
the direction will rapidly shift as the most likely path of the low
brings it directly across Lake Superior. Gusts of 40-47 kt are
around 20% likely with storm force gusts less than 10% likely.
Northwesterly winds remain high behind the low as between the
departing low, high pressure over the Plains, and any trailing low
pressures into the weekend, gradient flow will be strong, though
uncertainty is high in timing the strongest winds. Expect waves
below 4 feet until Monday night, when 4-8 foot waves begin to
overspread the lake by late Tuesday, with the highest being 8-12 ft
waves north of the Keweenaw Peninsula Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS