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000
FXUS64 KMRX 240736
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
336 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

1. Light rain showers possible through the first half of the day,
drying and clearing out for the afternoon and evening.

2. Breezy within the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains
through the early morning hours.

3. Potential for some fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
however, a bit uncertain as light winds could hinder fog development.

Discussion:

A relatively weak cold front stretches southwest to northeast from
the mid Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio River Valley.
Mosaic radar and surface observations depict scattered showers to
our north as an upper level shortwave and aforementioned surface
boundary work together to create broad and minor lift. This front
will continue to progress south/southeastward throughout the
overnight, bringing increased chances of light precipitation to the
forecast area. Timing will generally be from 5am - 11am, with the
greatest chances across our northern half of the CWA. Outside of
light rain, other minor impacts will include breezy winds in higher
terrain of the East Tennessee mountains through the morning. This is
because upper level divergence has allowed for the strengthening of
a low-end, westerly LLJ(~30-40kts). Cove Mountain wind tower has
observed 38mph thus far. Have blended some hi-resolution guidance
with the NBM for temperatures this morning as well. With cloud cover
and light winds to help mix the low levels, the NBM has been
performing rather poorly temperature wise.

Rain and clouds will gradually clear out as we head into the
afternoon hours and temperatures will trend quite normal for late
April. From this point on the weather will remain fairly quiet.
There is potential for the development of patchy fog due to
moistened top soils Wednesday night / Thursday morning, however,
this potential may be hindered by a light wind lingering post
FROPA through the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

1. Low-end Wind Advisory winds possible across the east TN mountains
Friday night.

2. Breezy valley winds Saturday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions
forecast over the weekend.

3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

Dry on Thursday as ridging begins to build in across the area.
Riding further strengthens on Friday. A warm frontal boundary will
lift north through the area during the day and a few light and
scattered showers are possible due to isentropic lift. Any precip
that falls will be light with QPF less than 0.1 inches. Behind the
warm front, the 850mb jet strengthens to 30 to 40kts Friday night.
Wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible across the east TN
mountains during this time.

Breezy conditions possible Saturday afternoon across the east TN
Valley. This is due to good afternoon mixing and the 850mb wind
speeds remaining in the 30 to 40 kt range. Otherwise, dry and warmer
over the weekend. Temperatures climb 5 to 10 degrees above normal as
we are deep within the warm sector ahead of a cold front stretching
along the Mississippi River. Our next shot of showers and storms
occurs Monday into Tuesday as the cold frontal boundary moves
through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Included mention of LLWS at all three sites through the early
morning hours given the development of 30-40kt WSW flow at
925-850mb. The chance for rain showers increases as LLWS improves
early morning, with low VFR clouds expected. Low chance of MVFR
cigs but have not included any predominant mention at this time.
Will continue to monitor upstream obs and make amendments if
needed. This afternoon winds will generally remain 10kts or less
and veer to the WNW/NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  50  78  57 /  10   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  46  74  53 /  40   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  46  76  53 /  30   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  42  71  47 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
AVIATION...KRS