961
FXUS66 KMTR 191938
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1238 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of
the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages
by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough
impacts the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Clouds continue to rapidly erode as of early this afternoon and will
continue to do so into the evening. Low clouds are more than likely
to return to the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula
overnight but will clear by early-to-mid morning. Also, cannot rule
out patchy drizzle in and around the Monterey Bay early Monday
morning.

Afternoon temperatures for Monday will be similar to today, yet
coastal areas will warm by a few degrees thanks to northerly flow
across the region. Thus, expecting highs to range from the lower
60`s to near 70 degrees at the coast with mid 70`s to lower 80`s
across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with
temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less
impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the
coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the
warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread
temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to
spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas
Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive
to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink
plenty of water.

By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther
south into California with an associated surface low passing through
the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread
below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning
below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our
region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards
of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR across the region this afternoon as stratus continues to recede
away to the coastline. Winds generally westerly and around 12-15
knots sustained this afternoon, with coastal terminals seeing
occasional gusts around the 20 kt mark. Tonight, most terminals
are forecast to remain clear and VFR with the exception of
Monterey Bay who is likely to see MVFR CIGs from stratus. However,
confidence on maintaining VFR into the night is only moderate as
short term models the last few days have not seemed to handle
changing conditions and stratus cover well. Troughing and breezier
winds should deepen the marine layer and keep it well mixed,
therefore limiting the extent of stratus coverage. Highest
confidence is in far inland terminals remaining VFR through the
TAF period, with moderate confidence on coastal terminals
maintaining VFR and just seeing FEW-SCT low clouds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Moderate and gusty W/NW winds this afternoon persist through the
evening, slowly weakening into the night to become light in the
first hours of Monday. As winds weaken, FEW low clouds may develop
over the terminal, but not expecting a CIG. Breezy onshore winds
return in the afternoon of Monday.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus continues to hang over the
terminal, though satellite continues to show the cloud deck receding
to the coast line. Come the early afternoon, VFR conditions are
likely to return, with winds increasing to become breezy. Occasional
gusts nearing the 20 kt mark are expected. Stratus makes a return in
the evening beyond sunset, with MVFR CIGs forming. MVFR then lasts
through the late morning of Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected
over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous
conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds
throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that
winds are expected to ease.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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