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000
FNUS73 KOAX 120913
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for John Devasur RX...NRCS
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be out of the northwest through late afternoon, with
the most frequent gusts occurring between 9 AM and Noon when there
will be gusts of 17-21 mph. The airmass will be quite dry with a
forecast ignition RH of 50-60 percent, dropping to 15-20 percent
by mid afternoon. Deep mixing is likely with excellent smoke
dispersal late morning through late afternoon.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 22 mph late morning

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 15% 4-5 PM.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 6 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (72000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   2   2   3   4   2   1   1   1   2   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  36  40  47  52  55  58  61  63  64  66  67
RH..............64  69  62  51  46  40  34  27  24  22  20  19
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.11  10  10  12  11  11  13  13  13  13  13  12
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   4   4   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.8   8   8   9   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  9
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.9   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd gst.14  13  13  15  14  14  16  16  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.7 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  13  12  15  16  16  15  15  14  13  13  12
GFDI............2   1   2   3   3   4   5   6   7   7   8   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10002   5   12  19  29  44  59  69  72  69  61  50

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........53 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 4 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming south up
                    to 5 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds around 8 mph decreasing to
                    around 6 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light early in the evening becoming
                    south 6 to 9 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph decreasing to
                    around 5 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light early in the evening becoming
                    southeast 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 10 mph shifting to the south 6 to 15
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................4.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      3      6      3      5      3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............67     61     53     49     46     44
RH..............19     24     32     39     43     47
20 ft wind......NW 6   E 3    SE 5   SE 5   S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.10     4      6      7      8      10
Eye level wind..NW 4   E 2    SE 4   SE 4   S 4    S 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.7      3      5      5      6      8
Surface wind....NW 8   E 4    SE 6   SE 6   S 8    S 8
Surface wnd gst.12     5      8      9      10     13
Mix hgt (ft)....5200   500    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 10  SW 3   SE 8   S 9    S 13   S 15
GFDI............5      2      2      2      2      2
Haines index....5      5      5      5      6      6
SDspl kt-ft/100037     14     3      2      4      5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 9 to 20 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................6 increasing to 15 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      3      14     27     40     55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............43     48     61     72     79     83
RH..............53     51     42     38     31     27
20 ft wind......S 7    S 8    S 11   S 12   S 15   S 15
20 ft wind gust.11     12     14     16     18     18
Eye level wind..S 5    S 6    S 8    S 9    S 11   S 11
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      9      10     12     13     14
Surface wind....S 9    S 10   S 14   S 15   S 19   S 19
Surface wnd gst.14     15     17     20     22     23
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1400   2000   2800   3400
Transport wind..S 15   S 17   S 18   S 18   S 22   S 22
GFDI............2      3      6      9      15     18
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6
SDspl kt-ft/10005      10     22     34     53     65

$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Kevin NRCS
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410442.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevinwtwfire@yahoo.com