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000
FNUS73 KOAX 091030
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for BIL1...USFWS
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
530 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The week`s lightest winds are expected today slowly growing from
calm this morning to near 6-12 mph later this afternoon from due
west. Smoke dispersal will slowly improve over the course of the
day.

Fire danger will climb on Wednesday and peak in the extreme
category on Thursday.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 14 mph

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 28-32%

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 7 mph.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (80100
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   3   4   5   5   4   9   9   7   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  36  38  43  51  55  59  63  65  66  67  69
RH..............86  88  84  72  58  50  43  38  35  34  31  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  11  12  14  14  14  14  13
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   5   6   7   7   7   7   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.6   6   6   8   8   9   10  11  11  11  11  10
Surface wnd gst.8   8   9   10  12  14  15  17  17  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 3.4 4.5 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.3 7.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   10  9   12  13  16  17  18  18  18  17  16
GFDI............1   1   1   2   3   4   5   7   8   8   9   8
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10002   3   3   6   16  39  67  90  108 116 110 80

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Surface winds (mph).West winds around 9 mph decreasing to around 8
                    mph early in the evening, then becoming light
                    early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 8 mph decreasing to around 6
                    mph early in the evening, then becoming light
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph shifting to the south 6 to 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (40900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........10     20     20     6      8      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     62     54     50     46     43
RH..............29     38     50     56     66     74
20 ft wind......W 7    W 4    SW 3   S 3    S 4    S 4
20 ft wind gust.11     6      4      4      5      5
Eye level wind..W 5    W 3    SW 2   S 2    S 3    S 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      5      3      3      4      4
Surface wind....W 9    W 5    SW 4   S 4    S 5    S 5
Surface wnd gst.14     8      5      5      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....7100   500    400    400    400    300
Transport wind..W 16   W 7    SW 7   S 6    S 8    S 9
GFDI............7      3      1      1      1      1
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100041     0      2      2      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest up to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming northwest 6 to 13 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    5 to 12 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 10 to 16 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (88100
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI................6 increasing to 12 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........11     21     27     37     46     47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     43     56     65     71     73
RH..............79     74     51     35     28     26
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   W 5    NW 6   NW 7   NW 9
20 ft wind gust.4      5      6      8      10     13
Eye level wind..SW 2   SW 2   W 4    NW 4   NW 5   NW 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      4      5      6      7      10
Surface wind....SW 4   SW 4   W 6    NW 8   NW 9   NW 11
Surface wnd gst.5      6      8      10     12     16
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    1200   4800   8200   8600
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 9   W 10   NW 12  NW 10  NW 15
GFDI............1      1      2      4      6      10
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10002      2      11     47     91     111

$$
Forecaster...Nicolaisen
Requested by...Sam Vanourney
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410015.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sam_vanourney@fws.gov