Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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381 FXUS64 KOHX 301711 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through tonight) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 For most of Middle TN, it`s a mix of clouds and sun at forecast time. However, a few on the Cumberland Plateau are catching a shower this morning. This should be the case for the next few hours before the backside of our system from last night pulls further away from the mid-state. Everyone should be rain-free before sunset. Also, the cumulus across the area should dissipate about this time, too. With light to calm winds and dew points remaining elevated, areas of fog are going to be possible tonight. A lot of it will be closer to bodies of water -- this is likely where it will be most dense -- but it may become widespread enough where we may need an advisory. I`ll let the evening shift take another look at it this evening to determine if an advisory will be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and Thursday, setting the stage for our warmest days of the year, so far. Mid to upper 80s are likely and while models still haven`t ticked BNA up to 90 for forecast highs on Thursday, there`s still a 70-80% chance we get there. Models continue to bring our next chance for rain back to Middle TN late Thursday night/first thing Friday morning. I`ve been looking over forecast soundings for Friday and I`ll admit, they are interesting. A good deal of CAPE is expected to build into the region (likely north of 1000 J/Kg) and mid-level lapse rates top out around 7.0 deg/km, however shear is almost non-existent as the surface low and associated upper support is up near the US/Canada border. It`s not likely to happen, but if we get any sort of secondary surface low to develop in the southwest flow and get some shear to develop, Friday`s severe chances will increase. In any event, rain chances will linger into Friday night and while we may see a break for a good portion of Saturday, more rain chances quickly move back into the area on Sunday and they could stick with us into Monday, as well. While severe chances are low to zero, you are going to want to pay attention to the forecast if you have outdoor plans this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Locations have slowly returned to VFR, with clouds continuing to clear. Clear conditions will remain into the overnight hours, before patchy to locally dense fog is expected to develop. MQY, SRB, and CSV will likely fall to MVFR or below, with SRB/CSV possibly having periods of LIFR early tomorrow morning. All locations will return to VFR by 13Z. Light winds continue, with variability in direction after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 57 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 53 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 55 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 55 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 54 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 56 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 58 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Adcock