765
FXUS61 KOKX 030256
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front passes through overnight followed by high
pressure building down the New England coast through Friday.
The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal
system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly
through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the
associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then
stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front
Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A backdoor cold front will pass through the region overnight,
with gusty NE winds in its wake. Behind the front, the surface
high will build down from eastern Canada and along the New
England coast. NE winds will advect in moist Canadian maritime
airmass under a subsidence inversion, which should allow for
advection of stratus late tonight into Friday morning. Stratus
should gradually erode from e to w Friday morning into
afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest
across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and
lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a
slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will
allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE
winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining
several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for
inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds
and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in
late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night
into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early
next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada
amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by
Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area
and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten,
Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough
becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes
region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal
system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday,
while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper
ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold
front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these
systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper
ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The
stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a
warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during
Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low
pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures
will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then
average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the
warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed
the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature
spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and
75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few
locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A backdoor cold front passes through overnight into early
Friday morning.

VFR across most terminals through 06-09z. MVFR stratus likely
to work in late tonight into early Fri AM from e to w behind
backdoor cold frontal passage. Gradual improvement to VFR from e
to w in the early to mid afternoon Friday.

N winds shift to NE 10-15g20kt in wake of backdoor front,
continuing gusty thru Friday morning push. Winds continue to
veer to the E/SE Fri afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt
thru aft/eve push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be
off by an hour or so. NE gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible during
Fri Am push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. Low prob of patchy MVFR stratus towards
morning.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR. Slight
chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon,
increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE
winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt overnight
into Fri AM, gradually diminishing from NE to SW on Friday. A
weak pressure gradient then maintains sub- advisory conditions
across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW