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000
FXUS64 KOUN 100445
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

An upper level low and associated vort max, just south of El Paso,
will track northeast across West Texas this evening and
overnight. Mid-level convergence appears to be concentrated just
to our west during the late afternoon and early evening, but
should gradually shift eastward into western north Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma during the evening. This should result in
better precipitation coverage and perhaps areas of excessive
rainfall. Although elevated instability is not overly high,
effective cloud layer shear is rather strong which may promote a
chance of some hail and strong wind gusts.

Overnight, the focus for rain and thunderstorms is expected to shift
northward.  Models differ somewhat on how much drier air will be
advected into northern Oklahoma.  Did trim guidance PoPs across
parts of far northern Oklahoma and expect a better focus for showers
and thunderstorms will be from west central Oklahoma into central
parts of the state.  A few HRRR runs suggest some of the stronger
storms overnight may produce near severe wind gusts, but this
is usually overdone.

As the upper low moves eastward across northern Texas on Wednesday,
surface winds will become more northerly, especially across the
western Oklahoma during the morning. As this occurs, better rain
and thunderstorm chances will shift into south central and central
Oklahoma, especially during the afternoon.  Instability will remain
weak and mainly elevated through Wednesday.  With higher PW values
across south central and southeastern Oklahoma locally heavy rainfall
is certainly possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to areas east
of Interstate 35 by Wednesday evening.  Gusty north to northwest
winds Wednesday night will continue to advect drier air southward.

Winds on Thursday will remain breezy to gusty, especially during the
morning and early afternoon.  Temperatures are not expected to be
very warm Thursday, but afternoon humidity will get rather low across
far northwestern Oklahoma.

Southerly winds will return by Friday and will increase Saturday as
a fast moving shortwave trough moves across the southern and
central Plains. Humidity will slowly improve through the weekend
but mainly dry conditions are expected. Another upper low/trough
will approach the area around Monday of next week. This will
increase rain and thunderstorm chances along with a risk of severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Area of thunderstorms approaching the OKC metro is expected to
pass within the next few hours. Then, periods of light rain and
drizzle for the rest of the night with ceilings lowering to
IFR/MVFR before or near dawn. Rain is expected to gradually shift
eastward tomorrow and end from west (mid-day) to east (early
evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  50  61  47 /  50  90  80  10
Hobart OK         59  47  66  44 /  70 100  60  10
Wichita Falls TX  63  51  62  47 /  80  90  60  10
Gage OK           63  43  71  41 /  30  70  20   0
Ponca City OK     72  50  65  47 /  10  50  60  10
Durant OK         68  58  66  48 /  80  70  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01