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000
FXUS65 KPIH 170948
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
348 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Thursday.
Looking at the current water vapor imagery there is a weak cold
front moving over our northern areas coming off an upper level low
over northern Idaho. There are very light snow showers currently,
mainly over the southern Central Mountains and the Upper Snake
Highlands/Island Park area as well as few light returns over the
Southeast Highlands. Snow amounts haven`t changed that much from
yesterday`s forecast. For today snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches
above 7 thousand feet and 1 to 3 inches below 7 thousand feet are
expected in most of the Eastern Highlands with much lighter
amounts in the Central mountains. Most of the snow will be this
morning, though around 1 to 2 inches is possible this afternoon.
It will be breezy as well today, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph and a
few areas, like our southwest areas, will gusts to near 40 mph.
Temperatures will remain below normal, around 8 to 12 degrees
below normal, today and Thursday. Thursday will be mostly dry with
high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be slightly
breezy, only gusting to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon Thursday.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.
Models continue to feature isolated to scattered precipitation
signatures along the Montana Divide on Friday associated with a
shortwave passing to our north. Outside of slight chances for high-
elevation light showers (National Blend PoPs of around 25% or less)
along our borders with WY and MT both Friday and Saturday, mostly
dry conditions will persist throughout late week as a weak transient
ridge shifts overhead briefly early weekend. By Sunday,
deterministic models show the next closed low passing to our north
across Canada with the associated trough across the ID panhandle and
zonal flow across southern Idaho (likely the breeziest day in the
extended timeframe). The GFS is a bit quicker in shifting the upper
low eastward as compared to the ECMWF. At this time, the NBM only
introduces minimal PoPs across the high terrain again on Sunday and
with another transient ridge shifting through on Monday, much of the
region will see dry conditions Friday through next Monday and a
decent amount of sunshine too. Regarding temperatures, confidence is
increasing in a continuous warming trend through early next week.
The NBM features daytime highs right around climatological norms
late this week but then warming to well above, with forecast highs
in the low 70s across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, 30s in the
mountains, and 50s in mountain valleys. Looking ahead, the next wave
moves onshore Tuesday, resulting in an unsettled pattern for the
middle of next week, which aligns well with the Climate Prediction
Center`s outlooks for closer to normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.
Cropp

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest and west winds will be breezy again today, with sustained
winds 10 to 20 kts and gusts 20 to 30 kts. Showery precipitation
will persist across SE Idaho today. The HREF model indicates a 10-
20% chance of showers over KPIH and KIDA through this evening, with
up to 50% chance at KDIJ but decreasing to around 20% or less after
21z. Outside of a period of MVFR CIGs at KDIJ mid-morning, have
forecast VFR throughout the period at all sites, although degraded
conditions will be possible as a result of any precipitation
directly over a terminal. Mid-level and high clouds will scatter
tonight leaving FEW to SKC for Thursday.
Cropp

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels on the Portneuf river continue to run high, just
below moderate flood stage for the Portneuf river in Pocatello.
The river forecast for the Portneuf river in Pocatello shows the
river running very close to these levels through today and then
start to gradually drop by Thursday but remain in minor flood
stage for the foreseeable future. Cooler temperatures this week
from cloud cover and a weak cold front will slowdown snowmelt
which would cause the river to drop slightly.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$