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000
FXUS65 KPUB 150959
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS TODAY EXCEPT SAN JUANS.

- Strong winds continue in mtns tonight

- Snow and Wind central mtns tonight and into tomorrow.

- A cold front arrives early Tuesday morning, bringing damaging
  winds and continued fire weather concerns for portions of the
  area.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through the end of
  the work week, though cooler temperatures are expected for
  much of the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Currently...

A very warm early April 15th over morning the region at 2 AM. Temps
over the plains were mainly in the 50s with a few 60s. Areas where
their was weak winds have dropped into the 40s. Warmest air was
along the immediate mtns/plains interface where 60s were noted. San
Luis Valley showed wide ranging temps, with 50s on the west slopes
of the sangres with 30s on the west side of the valley floor. Mtns
were generally in the 20s and 30s.

Today...

Synoptically evident RED FLAG WARNING conditions appear imminent.
strong mid level cyclone to our west will continue to push east and
move over the region tonight. Impressive strong SSW gradient will
push over the region this afternoon and this will allow for 40 to 50
mph winds over most of the plains, S mtns and SLV. RH values will
easily fall into the single digits by early afternoon across the
plains. DO NOT BURN today or do anything that could possibly cause a
spark.

Areas of blowing dust will be an issue in places this afternoon.

As for precip, snow and will appear imminent for the Central mtns
starting later this afternoon. Showers will be possible across the
central mtns valley.

Max temps will be cooler than yesterday across the mtns, valleys and
I-25 corridor. Temps will be similar to yesterday over the far
eastern plains.

Tonight...

Winds will howl tonight over the mtns as the low pushes to our east
and the NW gradient tightens significantly. An area of particular
interest will be over the eastern slopes of the La Garita mtns and
adjacent SLV floor (i,e, areas around Saguache). Although winds will
be strong in the mtns tonight, the winds should stay below high wind
criteria. The only area where it may hit warning criteria tonight
will be in and around Saguache in the SLV.

Over the Central mtns, snow will continue and could be heavy for
awhile along with strong winds. This will lead to blowing snow over
the higher terrain. The overall heaviest snow will occur generally
north of Cottonwood Pass.

Over the plains, winds will start to shift around to the west then
northwest by mid evening and gradually increase as the night
progresses, especially over the mtns/plains interface. Gust to 45 to
55 mph will be possible towards sunrise especially along and west of
the I-25. Another area which may see stronger winds will be the
southeast slopes of the Pikes Peak Massif. Travel along highway 115
may be difficult later tonight. Although cold air advection will be
over the region tonight, temps will remain modest due to the winds
over the plains.

As for precip over the plains, we will likely see some shower,
especially over the Pikes Peak region after 9 pm and over parts of
the plains later tonight as the mid level low moves across. Cant
rule out some snow-squally-like activity over the Palmer Divide
tonight, especially after midnight. With the warmer temps impacts
should be low, but visibility may be affected for an hour or so.

It should also be noted that the precip tonight over the plains may
accentuate the surface winds and there could be some thunder due to
the cold air aloft. It is not out of the question that we could have
a severe thunderstorm (winds) tonight over the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tuesday..

Models bring the low quickly into northwest Kansas by early Tuesday
morning, dropping a cold front across our plains. This front doesn`t
look to bring much in terms of precip, but will definitely pack a
punch with strong northerly winds and continued fire weather
concerns for portions of the area. Post-frontal gusts in excess of
55mph will be possible across our far eastern plains, where a High
Wind Watch has been hoisted for Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Northerly winds could lead to dangerous travel for
light and high profile vehicles, especially on west/east
oriented roadways, including highway 50. Blowing dust will also
be possible on Tuesday across our plains, which could lead to
decreased visibility and dangerous travel. A Fire Weather Watch
has also been issued for Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for the southern I-25 corridor, where winds are expected to
gust up 45 mph. Relative humidity values will be slightly better
on Tuesday, though Pueblo, Huerfano, and western Las Animas
counties are still expected to fall into the low teens by the
afternoon hours. Despite the cold frontal passage, daytime highs
will still reach into the 70s for most plains locations, with
highs in the 60s for mountain valleys. Mountain snow continues
throughout the morning and early afternoon hours over the
central mountains, before coming to an end by sunset. Teller
County and the Palmer Divide could see some brief wintry mix or
snow early in the morning as well, though with warm
temperatures, an early transition back to rain is expected.
Light and very spotty rain showers will be possible through the
morning hours, mainly north of highway 50, though main impacts
will remain wind and fire weather focused.

Wednesday Onwards..

Another widespread critical fire weather day is expected on
Wednesday, though wind speeds will be much less intense than Monday
and Tuesday, and relative humidity values will likely be in the
double digits for most. This will mean that Wednesday could be a bit
more of a lower end day despite how widespread highlights could end
up being. Westerly flow aloft increases on Wednesday as a trough
passes to our north, bringing downsloping winds to our area. Daytime
highs look to warm back into the 70s and 80s across the plains, with
upper 60s for mountain valleys. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions are expected. Another cold front pushes across the region
sometime Wednesday night or Thursday, keeping our temperatures
cooler for the second half of the work week and possibly bringing
some rain and/or snow chances in for our mountains and northern
portions of the plains, though timing is uncertain and amounts look
light at the moment. Despite the cooler temperatures on the plains,
critical fire weather conditions look to stick around for the San
Luis Valley for both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds will be the main issue for the taf sites during this forecast
period. It is possible that some periods of blowing dust will be
possible at all 3 sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be rather
strong from the SW this afternoon, and then shift to west and then
northwest later tonight as a strong Pacific front pushes across.
Some rain showers will be possible over KCOS this evening and during
the overnight hours tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
COZ220-224.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Tuesday for COZ058-060.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for COZ221-222-225>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for COZ228>230.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for COZ095-096-098-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH