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000
FXUS62 KRAH 121730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbance will dive southeast and across the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas this afternoon and evening. High
pressure will otherwise build across and offshore the Southeast
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Friday...

The morning gridded forecast update was sent with limited change
from the overnight forecast. 12Z-observed RAOBs at GSO, RNK, and MHX
all depict upr 30s to lwr 40s kts at the top of a several thousand
ft AGL well-mixed layer - representative of upr end surface gust
potential from turbulent momentum transfer through this afternoon.
Indeed, peak wind gusts of 35 and 36 kts have occurred at GSO and
INT since 13Z, respectively, during which time a gust of 39 kts has
occurred at HKY. A short-fused Wind Advisory may be necessary if
surface observational trends during the next hour depict
increasingly widespread and frequent gusts in this range. Even
stronger, convective gusts in and near shallow, afternoon-evening
convection may be diabatically-enhanced into the mid-upr 40s kts.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI Apr 12 2024/

...Another windy day with widely scattered afternoon/evening
showers...

A deepening low pressure system currently over the eastern Great
Lakes will lift north into southern Ontario and Quebec during the
afternoon and evening. High pressure over the Southern US Plains
will build eastward into the SE US late tonight and Saturday.

Upstairs, in the wake of the strong upper level s/w trough currently
moving through the area, another vigorous shortwave will dive SE
through the area this afternoon and evening.

The ongoing area of showers over the NW Piedmont, associated with a
lead upper shortwave and cold front moving through the area, will
progress NEwd, and should remain across the northern Piedmont and
northern coastal plain, before exiting. Skies will temporarily clear
out behind the shortwave with CAA ensuing as a series of cold fronts
pass east of the area.

The continued strong pressure gradient, aided by CAA and associated
steep low-level lapse rates, will allow for another day of windy
conditions. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with frequent
gusts of 30-40 mph.

The arrival of the aforementioned shortwave into NC will support an
area of widely scattered showers and isolated thunder that will
track east across the area between 18 to 00z. Instability is meager
and while no severe storms are expected, even a modest updraft/cell
could mix down some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph. Convection will
move the eastern/coastal plain counties ~ 00z.

Highs today will range from upper 60s NW Piedmont to lower/mid 70s
SE. Lows tonight in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Friday..

The strong trough which has made for gusty winds the past several
days will slowly move out Sat afternoon and evening as ridging over
the mid-section of the country slides into the TN valley. At the
surface, high pressure will be over the Deep South while low
pressure resides in the far NE US and Canada. These two pressure
centers will make for yet another gusty afternoon with WNW winds of
15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. There could be a brief gust to 35 mph
in portions of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. With dewpoints mixing
out into the 20s and low 30s, RH levels look to dip below 30-
percent. After coordination with the NCFS, an increased fire danger
has been issued for most of central NC. Thicknesses at low-levels
will slowly rise throughout the day, with temperatures topping out
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, right about average. By Sat night,
the pressure gradient finally relaxes as the low becomes further
removed and the high shifts into central FL. Winds should trend calm
overnight with lows close to normal in the mid 40s, except low 40s
in a few outlying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Warming trend through late week

High pressure will move across Florida on Sunday influencing fair
weather across central NC. Surface winds will shift from westerly to
southwesterly through the rest of the period, resulting in a warming
trend through the week. While the long term looks mostly dry, a
period of clouds and slight chance of rain for the northern portions
of the Piedmont is possible Wednesday as a strong low pressure
system moves from the plains and east across the upper MS valley and
NE into Canada by early Thursday. Most of the activity is expected
to stay north of Central NC, but a few isolated showers could
develop near the VA border Wednesday-Wednesday afternoon. Another
system over the Central Plains on Thursday will make its way to the
Mid-Atlantic by late week. Temperatures during the long term will
range from 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs Sunday will be in
the low 80s but quickly warming up during the work week to be in the
upper 80s (maybe even some 90 degrees spots) everywhere by Thursday.
Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Winds will pick back up after sunrise. Expect sustained winds of 17
to 22 kts, with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 kts, with some isolated
higher gusts possible, especially at KINT and KGSO. Scattered
showers and possibly some isolated thunder will move west to east
across the area between 18 to 00z. Brief MVFR restrictions will be
possible with the stronger cells. . Otherwise, expect predominately
VFR conditions will skies clearing Friday night.

Outlook: It will remain gusty across central NC through Saturday.
VFR conditions will persist this weekend and early next week as high
pressure builds across the terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire danger will result across most of central North
Carolina from 10 AM to 7 PM on Saturday. Northwesterly winds of 15
to 20 mph will gust between 25 and 30 mph, along with low relative
humidity as low as 25 percent. Refer to your local burn-permitting
authority on whether you may burn. If you do burn, exercise extreme
caution.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL
FIRE WEATHER...Kren