Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 242254
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather dry through Tuesday afternoon. A
low pressure system crossing through the Great Lakes will slowly
bring a cold front and showers through the region Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. Friday and Saturday look to be warmer and dry
under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Sunday...

No major changes are planned for the ongoing forecast overnight.
Thin cirrus clouds have started to arrive from the west, and
are currently primarily near and west of I-77 but are
progressing toward the east. Have made minor tweaks to hourly
temperatures, dew points, and wind speed/gusts to account for
the latest observations and expected trends through the evening
hours.


As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

 -  Dry tonight and Monday

Mid Atlantic and Carolinas in upper ridging between closed low over
the western Atlantic and upper low closing off over the Central
Plains.

Surface high pressure builds down the east slopes of the
Appalachians tonight and the wedge remains in place on Monday.
Surface winds will have an easterly component, but above the wedge
will be warm air advection and wind from the south with inceasing
wind speeds. The western side of the trapped cold air will be warmer
due to downsloping. Have some gusts of 20 to 30 mph from western
Greenbrier County, through Mercer and Tazewell Counties, into
western Watauga County tonight and Monday.

Winds in the river valleys will decouple tonight, leading to a large
spread in low temperatures from the mid 20s near the rivers to
around 40 at higher elevations and outside the wedge. 12Z Grand
Ensemble only showing the highest ridges from Mt. Rogers to
Beech Mountain with a greater than 40% probability of cooling
down to 25 degrees. Same model has a 80 to 100% chance that the
entire region will have highs below 60 degrees. So will stay
close to NBM numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather during Monday night.

2) Rain chances slowly arriving by late Tuesday and most likely
peaking during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday night across
the Mid Atlantic, but a broad upper level trough will approach the
Plains. A gusty southeast wind may linger west of the Blue Ridge
during Monday night and Tuesday morning in response to a deepening
low pressure system associated with this trough. Meanwhile, a strong
upper level ridge will build over the East Coast. This synoptic
pattern will delay the moisture reaching the Appalachian Mountains.
Thus, rain chances were slowed down during Tuesday and Tuesday night
in agreement with the model consensus showing this trend.

Because the central low for this system occludes and goes north into
Canada during Tuesday night, the cold front will take a long time to
cross the Mid Atlantic. The corresponding bulk of moisture should
come on Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will develop along
the East Coast by Wednesday night to push this front eastward. Given
how stretched out this system will become according to the various
model solutions, rainfall rates do not appear impressive at all, but
the long duration could yield amounts around a half an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for rain chances diminishing on Thursday.

2) Warmer air will arrive by the end of the week.

An area of low pressure along the East Coast will shove the cold
front further offshore on Thursday. A breezy northwest flow could
spark a few upslope rain showers in the mountains, but overall rain
chances will be decreasing during the day. High pressure should
arrive by Friday to bring dry weather. An upper level ridge will
build across the southern United States by Saturday, which should
help to boost temperatures higher for the Mid Atlantic. Forecast
confidence becomes low by the weekend as some model solutions depict
a warm front draped across the northern United States that could
wobble close enough towards the Appalachian Mountains to bring a
chance of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

Mid Atlantic and Carolinas in upper ridging between closed low
over the western Atlantic and upper low closing off over the
Central Plains.

Surface high pressure builds down the east slopes of the
Appalachians tonight and the wedge remains in place on Monday.
Surface winds will have an easterly component, but above the wedge
will be warm air advection and wind from the south with inceasing
wind speeds. The western side of the trapped cold air will be warmer
due to downsloping. Have some gusts of 20 to 30 mph from western
Greenbrier County, through Mercer and Tazewell Counties, into
western Watauga County tonight and Monday.

Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. There may be
a breezy southeast wind for BLF and LWB Monday with gusts up to
35 knots. Clouds will increase on Tuesday as a low pressure
system approaches from the west. The next chance of rain and
IFR/MVFR conditions occurs during Tuesday afternoon into
Thursday with a slow moving cold front.

Conditions will gradually improve by Thursday night as the low
pressure system heads offshore.

Friday is expected to be VFR and warmer.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG


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