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000
FXUS61 KRNK 151905
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
305 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south this afternoon which will trigger
isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms. This front lifts
back north as a warm front on Tuesday in advance of the next low
pressure system expected to approach the region by the middle
of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal
until the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10PM.

Environmental parameters are favorable for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, including DCAPE and mid/low level
lapse rates. What little cap/CIN that is left is gone by 4PM and
as southwest winds diminishing much of the downsloping will also
erode. This puts the best timing for storms from 4PM-10PM this
evening.

Seeing some cumulus just starting to develop in the southern
Blue Ridge and remnant outflow boundaries from thunderstorms
earlier today in the north. Expectation is for scattered
thunderstorms in central and easter Virginia this afternoon then
isolated to scattered coverage west into the mountains this
evening.

Increasing dew points will result in mild overnight
temperatures. As the front dips into central and eastern
Virginia clouds and fog will fill in over the piedmont.
Locations that get rain in the afternoon and evening may have a
few hours of patchy fog once the storms move through. Only minor
changes to temperatures overnight. May set a couple record warm
minimum temperatures for April 15th.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday

2: Temperatures above normal ahead approaching frontal system


A warm front will retreat to the north on Tuesday, moving the best
chances for storms north of the CWA. However, in the warm sector of
an approaching frontal system, we will see scattered to isolated
showers and storms around the area. The best coverage on these days
is likely to be in the mountains west of the Blue Ridge, while some
more stable air further east in the Piedmont and central VA will
limit coverage. Temperatures will be in the in the upper 70s
and 80s in the warm sector and slightly cooler north of the
front, depending on how much cloud cover there is in the
morning.

An west to east moving cold front will continue the chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. The region will be well
into the warm sector leading to above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms Friday and
Saturday with the best coverage over the mountains.

2. Decreasing precipitation chances Sunday into Monday.

3. Initially temperatures above normal Friday, but trending to below
normal by Monday.

A look at the 15 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows the following scenario Friday through Monday. On
Friday, an upper trough will be centered over Hudson Bay with its
axis extending south into the Eastern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio
Valley. This feature will pivot east and northeast through Monday,
eventually placing our region with more or less a zonal flow.
Before we reach that zonal flow, there may be a wrinkle or two
within the flow in the form of a shortwave through the crosses the
region on Sunday. At the surface, expect low pressure over southern
Quebec on Friday, with an associated cold front extending south then
southwest curving over, or close to, our region on Friday. By
Saturday, limited movement eastward of this front is expected. While
high pressure is starting to make headway into western portions of
the area on Sunday, the cold front may still be in close proximity.
By Monday, the front will have moved even farther east, off the
coast of the Carolinas.

Output from the 15 Apr 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures around +12C to +13C over the region Friday.
Through the weekend values decrease to +4C to +8C by Saturday and
+2C to +4C by Sunday. Similar values are expected Monday.
Precipitable Water values will average around 1.00 inch Friday, 0.75
to 1.00 inch on Saturday and Sunday, and 0.50 to 0.75 inch for
Monday.

The above conditions should result in period where showers and some
storms will be more abundant Friday into Saturday, start decreasing
in coverage on Sunday, and have limited or no coverage by Monday.
The bulk of any showers and storms will occur around peak heating of
the day into and through the evening hours. Coverage most days will
be greatest across the mountains. Temperatures will average about
ten degrees above normal for Friday, near or slightly above normal
Saturday, near or slightly below normal Sunday, and near normal
Monday.

Confidence in the above scenario in broad terms is moderate, but
still lower in confidence regarding specific timing and coverage of
the precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Widespread VFR across the region this afternoon.

Environmental parameters are favorable for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, including DCAPE and mid/low level
lapse rates. What little cap/CIN that is left is gone by 4PM and
as southwest winds diminishing much of the downsloping will
also erode. This puts the best timing for storms from 4PM-10PM
this evening.

Seeing some cumulus just starting to develop in the southern
Blue Ridge and remnant outflow boundaries from thunderstorms
earlier today in the north. Expectation is for scattered
thunderstorms in central and easter Virginia this afternoon then
isolated to scattered coverage west into the mountains this
evening. Damaging wind and large hail are the primary threat
with any severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Storms will also have MVFR ceilings and lower vsby due to heavy
rain.

Where it rains today, could be areas of patchy MVFR to IFR fog
late tonight and early Tues. Have LIFR at KLWB.

Winds turn to the east and southeast overnight as the front
pushes south into central and eastern Virginia. MVFR ceilings at
KLYH and KDAN are expected late tonight. Conditions improve once
mixing begins around 9/10AM.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system Wednesday through Saturday, especially each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG