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000
FXUS63 KSGF 182027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A WEAK SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR HIGHWAY 54 THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ALONG WITH LESS THAN 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND ABOUT 1500-2000
J/KG CAPE HAS DEVELOPED SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SUB SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION MAY REACH DOWN TO THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET
BUT WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND NEAR LAKE REGIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT
THINKING MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER AND MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE RAIN
CHANCES. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED STORM POP UP OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT A LITTLE BIT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRFIELDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIKELY PERIOD OF MVFR
DUE TO FORWARD VISIBILITY AT SGF AND BBG DUE TO LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION. A PERIOD OF BOTH MVFR AND
VFR IS LIKELY AT BBG FOR THE SAME REASON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...ONLY PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD
OF MORNING GROUND FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION OF ANY
GROUND FOG OR HAZE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO RAPID
WARMING UP UNDER A HIGH SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AIDING IN MIXING UP THE SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...COLUCCI