983
FXUS64 KSHV 141146
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A quiet 36-hours is expected across the region, as weak upper-
level ridging moves in behind all of this heavy precipitation.
However, one can expect things to get rather muggy, as highs will
climb into the low-90s by Wednesday. Even with dry air filtering
into the region, recent rainfalls will likely result in increased
surface level RH values, even if only for a day or two. Such will
especially be the case this morning, as decoupled winds are
aiding in fog formation across portions of E. Texas. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued to account for this, with most of the
dense fog dissipating between 8-9AM. However, patchy fog may
linger for a few hours after that.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Heavy rainfall will quickly return to the forecast, as moisture
return gets underway by Thursday morning. This return in flow
will precede the next trough slated to move through the Plains
Thursday into Friday. The bulk of this rainfall looks to be during
the overnight hours on Thursday, when a very narrow and heavy
axis of rainfall looks to set up in E. Texas and NW. Louisiana. An
additional 3-5 inches of rainfall will be possible through Friday
night, in areas that have already seen 4-7 inches of rain the
last few days. A flood watch will absolutely be need the next few
days, as a Moderate Risk ERO has already been introduced by the
WPC. I could have probably issued one tonight, but given the
placement questions regarding that heaviest axis of rainfall, I
figured it would be best to wait.

Things should dry out into the weekend, with only a few lingering
chances at a shower or thunderstorm. From there, highs will begin
to climb into the low to mid-90s, with us potentially seeing our
first extended taste of summer temperatures.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

For the 14/12z TAFs...Low cigs remain in place, resulting in
reduced flight categories. Patchy dense fog has also developed
across the region, mostly affecting our East Texas terminals. The
fog should lift over the next couple of hours, followed by a cool
front. Expect dry conditions and NW winds in wake of the front,
with with mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon. Winds will
diminish after sunset. With clear skies expected along with wet
soils, more fog is likely overnight.  /20/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  63  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  84  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  56  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  82  60  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  81  58  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  84  62  89  67 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  85  62  91  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-059.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LAZ010-017.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20