578
FXUS64 KSJT 020544
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Evening...

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across far west
Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline
during peak heating this afternoon, with storms moving eastward
across the area during the evening hours. Initial storms are
expected to be discrete, with supercells likely, then storms
should become more linear with time as they push east across the
area. Latest meso-analysis shows SBCAPES between 3000-4000 J/kg,
which will support intense updrafts with any storms that develop.
Effective shear is currently around 25 kts, but is expected to
increase this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west.
This will result in more widespread thunderstorm development later
this evening. Very strong instability, coupled with steep lapse
rates will support large to very large hail with any supercells
initially, along with a tornado threat. Storms should gradually
become more outflow dominant as they move eastward with time,
with damaging winds becoming more of a concern. Storms should
exit far southeast counties between 2 and 3 AM, although some
lingering showers may remain for a bit longer across eastern
portions of the forecast area.

Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening,
as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold
front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. In
addition, several outflow boundaries will likely be present.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along any of these
features tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Very strong
instability will occur east of the dryline and south of the
front, along with deep layer shear between 35 and 40 kts. These
parameters will support severe storms capable of producing large
to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be across the
eastern two thirds of the Big Country, eastern portions of the
Concho Valley and the Heartland counties.

As for temperatures, expect lows tonight in the mid and upper
60s, with highs Thursday mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
However, a few readings in the mid 90s will be possible across
the western Concho Valley west of the dryline.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our
central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big
Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening
hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern
counties. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible during the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of
the dryline. Most of this activity should be confined to our
eastern counties. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
hazards.

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big
Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday,
although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the remnant cold front in the region.

Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest
flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher
rain chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler,
generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are
expected next week with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday
will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the
approaching the upper 90s in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

TSRA have moved east of all TAF sites late this evening. MVFR
ceilings have already begun to move in behind the convection, and
will continue to spread north and northwest across all sites in
the next few hours. MVFR to, at times, IFR ceilings will continue
through the late morning hours, and potentially into the afternoon
at KJCT and KBBD. Although there is another chance for isolated to
scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon/evening, confidence is low in
there being enough coverage to mention in our TAFs at this time.
Winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  62  85  64 /  10  20  30  30
San Angelo  94  65  91  64 /  10   0  30  20
Junction    90  69  91  67 /  10  10  20  20
Brownwood   86  66  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Sweetwater  90  62  85  64 /  10  10  30  30
Ozona       92  65  89  64 /  10   0  30  20
Brady       87  67  85  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20