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000
FXUS01 KWBC 180734
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 20 2024

...Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Middle
Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys and Southern Plains Thursday...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and cooler weather for much of the
Southern Plains Friday; wintry mix into the central High Plains...

...Unseasonably warm conditions for much of the southern U.S.;
chillier weather expands across the northern Rockies/Plains and
Upper Midwest...

A weakening system over the Northeast will bring some shower
chances to the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday. To
the west, a much broader area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected ahead of a cold front from the Middle Mississippi/Lower
Ohio Valleys southwestward through the Southern Plains. Sufficient
shear and instability will be in place in the Middle
Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys for some organized
thunderstorms/line segments, with the Storm Prediction Center
noting an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. A
Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southwestward along the front into
Texas, with a more isolated threat for some large hail and
damaging winds. The prospect of widespread storm coverage,
especially for areas further north through the Middle Mississippi
Valley, and the potential for heavy downpours may lead to some
isolated flash flooding as well.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will progress eastward with the
advancing cold front into the Appalachians by Friday morning and
eventually the East Coast by Friday evening, though coverage and
intensity looks to trend downward during the day as the front
approaches the coast. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may
occur over the Southeast. Areas of moderate to rainfall will
linger over portions of the Southern Plains along and north of the
cold front over Texas as it begins to slow and stall over the
region. Some isolated flooding will be possible. Post-frontal
upslope flow will also bring precipiation chances to the central
High Plains and Front Range of the Rockies, with a mix of rain and
snow showers for lower elevations and snow into the mountains. Any
accumulations at the lower elevations should remain minimal.

Forecast high temperatures remain rather warm to even hot across
southern portions of the country Thursday, with highs in the
mid-80s to near 90 from Texas eastward through the Southeast, and
even as far north as portions of the Middle Mississippi and Lower
Ohio Valleys. Areas of west Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley
will see mid- to upper 90s. Conditions will be similarly hot in
the Desert Southwest. The southerly progression of the cold front
will bring much cooler temperatures Friday across northern Texas
and into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley as highs drop into the
60s and 70s. Conditions will remain hot south of the frontal
boundary.  Further north, highs will range in the 50s and 60s
across the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes
region, with 60s and 70s from the Ohio Valley into the southern
Mid-Atlantic. The northern Mid-Atlantic into New England will be a
bit chilly Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s, with
temperatures expected to recover a bit Friday. Cold temperatures
will also expand in coverage across the northern Rockies/Plains
and Upper Midwest as high pressure settles in over the region,
with highs in the 30s and 40s. In the West, highs will range from
the 60s and 70s from the Pacific Northwest southward through
coastal California and inland across the Great Basin, with 80s for
the central California valleys.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$