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000
FXUS62 KTAE 130653
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
253 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Surface high pressure will slide overhead throughout today and
tonight with light northwest to north winds expected. High
temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 this
afternoon under sunny skies. A good setup for radiational cooling is
expected overnight with clear skies, dry conditions, and calm winds.
As a result, lows are forecast to drop into the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Surface high pressure over the region to start the period moseys
into the western Atlantic Sunday night into Monday. Southeasterly
flow develops as this occurs and will increase low-level moisture
values. As a result, patchy fog has been introduced to the
forecast, mainly in the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Alabama, for early Monday morning. Outside of that, dry weather is
expected with ample sunshine warming each afternoon into the
lower to middle 80s with lows Monday morning in the lower to
middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Light southeasterly flow is expected through mid-week as dew points
steadily increase back into the 60s by Tuesday night. Couple that
with calm winds overnight and still saturated grounds from recent
rains and there is the potential for fog late Monday night into
Tuesday. Additional fog concerns are possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday night, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include in the
forecast at this time due to high clouds forecast to be streaming
over the region.

As far as the synoptic pattern is concerned, a large H5 trough over
the Intermountain West will be moving into the middle of the country
Monday night into Tuesday as an H5 ridge remains over the Bay of
Campeche. The trough will lift towards the Great Lakes by mid
week as a shortwave moves through the Southern Plains and along
the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a strong low will be pushing northeast towards the
western Great Lakes as a cold front pushes southeast towards the
Southeast. There remains some uncertainty as to how quickly and
how far the cold front can push southeast into our area, but the
current thinking is it will arrive sometime on Friday. There may
be just enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers, maybe a
thunderstorm, out ahead of the front on Friday. Even then, that
chance is less than 20 percent at this juncture.

Temperatures will generally climb into the middle to upper 80s
each afternoon. There is a slight chance, less than 20 percent, of a few
locations reaching the 90 degree mark for the first time this year
on Thursday. Overnight lows will warm from the middle 50s Monday
night to the upper 50s to middle 60s Tuesday night and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Marine conditions continue to improve as high pressure moves over
the region through the weekend and into next week. A light to
moderate breeze out of the north is expected today with light and
variable winds expected Sunday into Monday. Seas will generally be
between 2-4 feet today before dropping to less than 2 feet Sunday
and Monday. A light to moderate southeasterly breeze takes over
Monday night into Tuesday as seas increase to 2 to 4 feet through
the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High mixing heights will lead to high dispersions today and very good
dispersions Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will persist into next
week as well, with minimum RH dropping into the 20% to 30% range
this afternoon before moistening to the 30%-40% range across
inland areas Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Capitola/Chaires
area east to NE of Tallahassee near I-10 towards the Jefferson
County border this afternoon. Leon County reported deep standing
water hazardous to motorists in the affected area. Conditions will
be reassessed later this morning to see if the time needs to be
extended.

Flood Warnings continue at Concord, Thomasville, Lamont, Valdosta
Skipper Bridge, St Marks Newport, Quitman, and Spring Creek Iron
City, Ochlocknee Havana, and the Sopchoppy. Flood Warnings were
issued for the Chipola at Marianna and the Withlacoochee at
Pinetta late last night.

Mainstem and smaller rivers/creeks continue to rise after Thursday
morning`s torrential rain event. As a result, a period of minor to
moderate riverine flooding continues through the weekend and into
next week. Additional Flood Warnings may be needed along the
Suwannee River from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the coming
days. Moderate flooding is not expected along the Suwannee.

With no additional rainfall anticipated for the next several days,
this event is now just monitoring routed flows through the river
system into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  57  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  50  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  50  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  58  74  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Godsey/Reese