000
FXUS62 KTBW 251919
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
319 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Broad upper-level ridging is building in from the west, pushing the
surface ridge axis farther to the east. A light background ESE flow
continues at the surface, with a westerly flow developing along the
coast as the sea breeze propagates inland and moderates temperatures
slightly. This largely benign weather is largely a continuation of
what we have seen and what we largely will see.

There is very little appreciable change in the forecast for the next
seven days, even as the synoptic pattern evolves. The ridge still to
the west will continue propagating eastward and should amplify over
the weekend directly over the peninsula. This favors a tighter
gradient and a slight increase in wind speeds at the surface,
potentially leading to elevated fire weather concerns and poor
marine conditions late in the weekend and into early next week.
Overall, though, this should have little impact on our weather.

Warm and dry is the theme for the next week, even as the pattern
flattens out towards Wednesday. There are some hints later in the
forecast for enough low-level moisture and convergence to support a
couple storms; but the synoptic pattern suggests strong subsidence,
keeping that risk to less than 10%. As such, have opted to keep rain
chances at 0% through the entire period. The next appreciable chance
for any storms doesn`t appear until the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

No significant aviation concerns. Sea breeze development is
occurring now along the coast, with a westward wind shift through
the evening. Easterly flow dominates in the background and will
prevail everywhere except the immediate coast during the late
afternoon/evening each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

No significant concerns into the weekend as overall light winds
keep seas under two feet. As a stronger gradient settles in over
the weekend, winds and seas are expected to increase, with poor
marine conditions expected to linger into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Warm, dry weather continues as RH values continue to dip below
critical thresholds each afternoon. However, winds remain light
enough to preclude any significant red flag concerns at least
until the weekend. While remaining warm and dry, winds are
expected to increase Saturday and into Sunday, with some elevated
fire weather concerns especially late in the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  87  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  66  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  63  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  58  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  70  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery