892
FXXX10 KWNP 290031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2024

             Apr 29       Apr 30       May 01
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         2.00
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         3.67
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         3.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         3.00
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         2.67
18-21UT       2.33         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024

              Apr 29  Apr 30  May 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024

              Apr 29        Apr 30        May 01
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 29-30 Apr and 01 May.