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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221438
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
838 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be windy at times today, but not quite as windy as Sunday.
Quiet weather conditions are expected on Tuesday, while Wednesday
looks to be the warmest day not only of the week, but for awhile.
It turns cooler by the end of the week, with lower elevation rain
and mountain snow possible by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated model guidance was added to the short term but generally,
no major changes were made to the forecast. The thunderstorm
potential increased ever so slightly this afternoon in northern
Blaine county, however, confidence still remains generally less
than 20% with most of the thunderstorm threat still off to the
east along the hi-line.

-thor

&&

.AVIATION...
530 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 (22/12Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals during this TAF period.
The primary concern for this TAF period is gusty winds at all
terminals due to a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will gust
up to 25 kts at the KHLN and KGTF terminals during the majority of
this TAF period. Winds at the KCTB, KHVR, and KCTB terminals will
gust up to 30 kts during this TAF period with wind gusts decreasing
by this evening. At the KBZN terminal winds will gust up to 23kts
between 4PM and 9PM tonight. There will be instances of low-level
wind shear at the KHVR terminal from now until 10AM this morning.
There will scattered to few high-level clouds across all terminals
during this TAF period. There will be mountain wave turbulence
during the majority of this TAF period. -IG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
Today through Tuesday...Quiet conditons are residing over the CWA
this morning, while a weak upper level disturbance is approaching
the Havre/Turner areas in our northeast section of the CWA. Expect
some increasing clouds, and a small chance for a passing shower in
the Turner area later today. It will be a bit windy today,
especially over North Central MT, but it should not be as windy as
Sunday was for most areas. The disturbance exits the area tonight
for generally dry and seasonable temperatures on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper level ridge will become
westerly during this period. Additionally, upper level
disturbances will move from west to east over Southwest MT on both
Wed and Thu. This will result in passing showers over Central and
Southwest MT. There is a low probability of some lightning on
Wed, but to low to introduce into the forecast right now.
Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week and likely
the next several days as well.

Friday through Monday...A large upper level trof will develop over
the Northern Rockies during this period. The forecast models agree
on it turning cooler over the entire CWA. However, the forecast
models all differ on the amount and type of precipitation that
could fall next Fri thru Sun. Some models have 1 to 2 inches of
QPF over Central and Southwest MT, while other models generally
have between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of QPF. Overall, it does look
like lower elevation rain and mountain snow will impact portions
of the CWA Fri and Sat. Right now the heaviest snowfall would
occur in the mountains around Big Sky and Pony, where there is a
60 percent that snowfall could exceed 8 inches in these areas. The
overall confidence in the weekend precipitation is low, since the
forecast models continue to differ from run to run. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  30  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  54  28  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  58  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  58  26  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  52  21  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  58  31  63  36 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  51  28  58  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

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