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000
FXUS63 KTOP 170543
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms may be possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
  Hail appears to be the primary hazard.

- Overall cooler temperatures into the weekend with frost/freeze
  conditions possible Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Currently, a deep mature mid-latitude cyclone continues its
progression through the central Plains with a negatively tilted
upper low lifting into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The
dryline has pushed east of the area, so severe storms for the rest
of the day appear unlikely. The Pacific cold front is pushing
through north central Kansas into northeast Kansas at this hour.
Wrap around and residual moisture is giving way to generally non-
severe storms into southeastern Nebraska and showers now working
into north central Kansas areas. A broad upper trough extends back
into the Desert Southwest with a ridge working into the western
CONUS. Another Pacific shortwave trough is working into the Pacific
northwest region.

For the balance of the afternoon and early evening, expect the
strong gradient winds to continue to bring gust SW winds gradually
becoming westerly as the upper trough lifts northeast. Some of the
strongest gusts may reach above 50 mph at times. Winds relax this
evening but remain strong through midday tomorrow.

A few isolated storms may occur generally along highway 36 this
afternoon and early evening. Expect these storms to be non-severe.
The next opportunity for storms to produce severe hail comes into
Wednesday night and early Thursday morning as the incoming Pacific
trough digs into the central Plains and Gulf moisture in the low
levels makes a quick return as the LLJ strengthens tomorrow night
with the nose of the LLJ focused into central and east central
Kansas areas. Appears to be a marginal threat of severe storms for
now. Right now, have a 60-80% chance for precipitation across the
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Certainty in coverage is
low but sufficient lapse rates along with shear should allow for
efficient organization of updrafts to take place and remain
sustained. Best chances for storms could once again occur in the
early morning on Thursday.

After the Pacific trough transitions through the western ridge
flattens slightly keeping WNW flow over the region through the
weekend. Low level CAA with a modified Canadian surface ridge builds
south into the region. Could see low temperatures near freezing by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile highs should be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Westerly surface
winds will be 10 to 13 KTS with some gusts through this morning.
Winds will diminish through the afternoon and will become light
from the east through the evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan