Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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679 FXUS64 KTSA 041950 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front is making southward progress across parts of northeast Oklahoma, positioned north of I-44 as seen in both radar and surface observations. Widely scattered thunderstorms have been ongoing for most of the day to the south of the front, but a more widespread batch of showers and storms are approaching east central and southeast Oklahoma from the west in response to a weak upper disturbance. An earlier line of storms produced very efficient rainfall with 3 inch an hour rates across southern Okfuskee County, with a quick response in our flash flood monitoring tools due in part to the saturated grounds. As the aforementioned storms to the west approach, additional flash flooding will remain a concern. In addition, isolated severe weather, featuring a large hail and damaging wind threat, remains a concern given the available instability and increasing deep layer shear. Toward daybreak, even more widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into parts of eastern Oklahoma in response to a more robust upper level wave approaching from West Texas overnight. Flash flooding will be an increasing threat as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time along with the movement of the upper level support. Some redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours, depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however, given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the antecedent conditions. Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those. Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south, however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning. Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat, although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Ongoing storms over north central OK are likely to weaken as they spread toward NE OK terminals, however additional showers and storms may expand later this morning along the trailing cold front. The forecast will account for this possibility with at least isolated to scattered convection spreading eastward through the early to late morning hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are also possible generally area wide late tonight through the morning. Storm chances continue through the day with the focus being the remnant outflow / weak cold front. More organized and widespread convection is expected into the region this evening into tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 70 61 82 / 70 90 20 30 FSM 65 73 63 83 / 60 100 30 30 MLC 63 72 64 82 / 80 100 20 30 BVO 54 68 58 81 / 60 90 20 30 FYV 60 72 62 82 / 50 90 40 30 BYV 60 70 60 80 / 50 90 50 30 MKO 61 70 61 80 / 70 100 20 30 MIO 56 68 60 80 / 50 80 30 30 F10 60 70 61 80 / 80 90 20 30 HHW 65 73 64 79 / 80 90 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...67