Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140233
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
933 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Isolated thunderstorms developed earlier this evening ahead of
the dryline to the west of Tulsa and have now tracked to the
northeast of Tulsa. These storms have shown a weakening trend
and that is expected to continue over the next couple of hours
as the storms eventually diminish or exit the area. Additional
showers and storms will be possible late tonight across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas as isentropic lift increases.
Have only made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight
to better reflect current trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Through the morning hours the surface low pressure axis is
forecast to move into the region with the dryline moving into
Northeast Oklahoma. There remains some uncertainty with just how
far east this boundary can travel with the 60 deg dewpoints
holding over the CWA. Latest indications are that by early
afternoon this boundary could be near Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma. The drier air behind this boundary could create areas of
limited fire weather danger.

Meanwhile...attention remains with locations ahead of the
boundary Thursday afternoon and evening. The dryline is progged to
remain in Northeast Oklahoma and wait to be overtaken by the cold
front Thursday evening. Increasing instability interacting with
daytime heating and moisture across the CWA will aid in
thunderstorm initiation mainly within the warm section south of
Interstate 44 starting around early afternoon...give or take an
hour or so. This activity is forecast to start out as more
discrete cells lifting northeast within mean mid level flow and
spread into Northwest Arkansas. All modes of severe including
large hail...damaging winds...and a limited tornado potential are
possible. The greater tornado potential is currently progged
across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas as shear vectors
are more favorable over these locations...as shear vectors are
more parallel to each other and the front in Northeast Oklahoma.

Storm development ahead of the front is expected to continue
through Thursday evening with potential shifting southeast through
the CWA with the movement of the cold front. Additional storm
development also looks possible along the front within a band of
frontogenetic forcing. Storms along the front look to be more
linear with large hail and locally damaging winds the main
threats. The limited tornado potential should remain with any
discrete cells ahead of the boundary through the evening hours.
Latest indications show the majority of the storms should be
exiting the CWA around 06z Friday...with any lingering activity
exiting by early Friday morning.

Cooler conditions and northerly winds are forecast Friday behind
the exiting mid level wave. A secondary wave and associated
frontal boundary are forecast to spread back into the region over
the weekend with this second front moving into the CWA Sunday. In
response...slightly warmer temps are forecast Saturday before
cooling again Sunday. The cooler conditions look to be short lived
as southerly flow returns Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of another
shortwave that could move into the Plains late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

An isolated thunderstorm may impact KBVO over the next few hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail this evening and will continue
for much of the night. Will once again see MVFR ceilings return
Thursday morning with thunderstorms impacting many of the sites
as we move into Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  80  47  62 /  20  40  50   0
FSM   63  80  56  66 /  20  80  80  10
MLC   64  79  54  65 /  20  70  60  10
BVO   60  79  44  62 /  30  20  20   0
FYV   60  77  50  60 /  20  80  80  10
BYV   62  79  51  59 /  20  80  80  10
MKO   63  79  51  62 /  20  70  60   0
MIO   61  79  46  59 /  30  50  50   0
F10   63  79  49  62 /  20  60  50   0
HHW   64  79  58  67 /  20  80  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...10


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