Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 130535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Isolated supercell, currently tracking southeast into southwest
MO this evening, should begin to slowly weaken as storm moves
into a more stable air-mass over the next hour or two. Therefore,
overall severe threat for northwest Arkansas should remain low
(less than 5 percent). Some minor changes to PoPs with update,
mainly to remove across NE OK, otherwise, forecast on track in
the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Much of the area will see zonal flow aloft this evening with the
passage of a shortwave trough. This disturbance may or may not
produce a thunderstorm or two across the far northeast OK corner and
far northwest AR corner late this evening. Some models even show an
isolated storm or two trek from west to east across the I-40
corridor after midnight tonight. However, the HRRR and the RAP
remained dry as low level moisture appears to remain limited until
later tomorrow. Also, a cap appears to remain in place around H8.
Due to the low confidence have reduced NBM PoPs below 15 for this
area.

Tomorrow is looking mostly dry as far as precipitation goes. Tds
will be on the rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow
afternoon as a leeside low develops over the OK Panhandle. Surface
winds should pick back up into the 15 to 20 mph range in the
afternoon as the pressure gradient steepens with the approaching
low. Moisture advection is progged to occur throughout the column
with the approaching upper level trough and associated southwest
flow aloft. Chances return after 7 PM tomorrow evening with 20 to 30
PoPs int the western FA with a psuedo dryline forming. Thunderstorms
may become strong to severe as well with this set up with the
possibility of large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not
expected with these storms. However, the chances are not nil. Later
into tomorrow night 30 PoPs shift east into far eastern OK and
western AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The active weather pattern with daily thunderstorm chances will
continue into Thursday across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible during
the late afternoon through the evening hours. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be the primary hazards, but a tornado cannot
be ruled out. Cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend into
early next week with highs right around average.

On Thursday morning, model guidance continues to show a broad H500
trough across much of the central CONUS extending westward towards
the Rockies. The center of the H500 low is forecast to be near the
southern tip of Nevada by late Thursday with southwesterly flow
across the CWA. Southerly surface winds should allow plenty of
moisture to remain across portions of the area, with an emphasis on
areas southeast of Interstate 44, which should remain to the east of
a dryline during the afternoon hours. Lift provided by the surface
boundary and a shortwave trough should be enough to generate another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The 12/12z LREF probabilities
are showing a 70 percent or higher chance for CAPE values to reach
or exceed 1500 J/kg during the afternoon into early evening hours.
If thunderstorms form in this favorable environment, they could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. The potential for a tornado is low at this time, but cannot
be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values around 1.25 inches are
expected which would bring a threat for heavy rainfall with any
storms that form as well. Some storms may linger across the
southeastern portion of the CWA through the overnight hours before a
southward moving cold front pushes the storms east of the
region early on Friday.

Cooler and more stable air will move in behind the cold front on
Friday through early next week across the region. There is a low end
potential for some showers for southeastern Oklahoma on Friday and
Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible but severe weather
appears unlikely at this time. Cooler, near average, highs are
expected this weekend into early next week with temperatures in the
upper 50s to 60s. A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday
which will bring in a bit cooler air for Monday and a few locations
may even drop down to freezing on Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Light southerly winds will continue overnight with marginal LLWS
possible. The other concern overnight will be a gradual increase
in low clouds in the 1.5-3 kft layer. BKN coverage in this layer
will develop between 12-15Z for most locations.

During the day Wednesday the preponderance of guidance leans
towards low clouds breaking up by late morning or early afternoon
(with SCT coverage continuing) but it is possible (30-40% chance)
clouds do not thin as expected. Either way, low clouds will return
by the evening. A 15-25% chance of showers or storms exists
during the evening hours. This is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will become gusty after 15Z Wednesday, with
gusts of 20-30 kts for most locations. Wind gusts will relax
slightly to 15-20 kts after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  80  46 /  10  30  50  40
FSM   77  63  81  55 /  10  40  70  80
MLC   77  63  79  50 /   0  20  60  70
BVO   79  57  80  42 /  10  30  30  20
FYV   75  58  79  46 /  10  40  60  70
BYV   76  60  79  49 /  10  30  50  70
MKO   76  62  79  48 /  10  30  60  60
MIO   77  60  77  45 /  10  30  50  40
F10   77  62  78  48 /  10  20  60  60
HHW   75  63  79  56 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06


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