Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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682 FXUS64 KTSA 281914 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 214 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The remnants of the overnight thunderstorm complex have finally shifted east of the area for the most part, with only a few lingering showers across parts of Arkansas. Redevelopment of thunderstorms remains expected from mid afternoon into the evening in advance of the cold front/dryline. The persistent cloud cover and rainfall has delayed an increase in instability across much of the region, but mesoanalysis indicates a local maximum in instability currently across south central and into portions of southeast Oklahoma, where initial development is likely to be located. Thunderstorms will shift to the north and east through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, likely exiting the area to the east mid to late evening. Shear parameters, along with an expected increase in instability more into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, will support a severe weather threat, including large hail, damaging winds and a low tornado threat. In addition, another round of heavy rain could occur, with localized flooding remaining possible. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 After an active last few days, the early part of the work week will provide a brief break, with surface high pressure bringing dry weather into much of Tuesday. A storm system in the Northern Plains toward the middle of the week will drag a front southward toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border, leading to low shower and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday along with a cold front that is expected to move through the area. Both severe weather and heavy rain/flooding threats will exist with the Thursday and Thursday night storms. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into early next weekend, with a more substantial system expected toward the end of next weekend along with higher storm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Thr focus for additional rain and storms will come later this afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo thunder from late afternoon and into the evening at KMLC and all AR sites with MVFR cigs and vsbys. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail across the AR sites after 05z. Across the NE OK sites, conditions are expected to improve VFR in time with storm coverage later today expected to remain east of KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. Will include a period of MVFR vsbys in fog after 09z at KMLC/KBVO and KRVS as clearing skies, light winds and saturated grounds will support fog potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 55 80 59 86 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 61 83 59 87 / 50 0 0 0 MLC 59 83 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 49 80 54 86 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 57 80 55 85 / 50 0 0 0 BYV 59 78 54 84 / 60 0 0 0 MKO 57 80 57 84 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 54 78 54 84 / 30 0 0 0 F10 56 80 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 61 81 59 82 / 30 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069- 072-074>076. AR...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020- 029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...23