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000
FXUS65 KVEF 140406
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
905 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving through the region will produce
breezy to windy conditions through Sunday along with cooler
temperatures and some light shower activity. Improving conditions
are expected Monday as the weather system departs to the
area....with temperatures returning to well above normal values by
Wednesday onward.
&&

.UPDATE...Recent satellite loops showed an impressive looking
moisture plume moving across Inyo and Esmeralda counties this
evening on the leading edge of the incoming closed low. Wind speeds
underperformed somewhat over much of Clark County during the
afternoon and early evening, but as they transition from south-
southeast components to southwest late this evening and overnight we
may see localized gusts over 40 mph in Red Rock Canyon and
neighborhoods near the western foothills of the Spring Mountains.
However, the potential for extensive gusts over 40 mph should
diminish by 11 pm PDT.

The moisture plume will move north and break up overnight and only
limited moisture around the circulation center will move over
southern Nevada and nearby areas of San Bernardino and Mohave
counties with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few brief
thunderstorms. This trends are covered in going forecast and no
immediate changes are needed.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
100 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Low pressure off the coast of Northern California is slowly
developing south and east this afternoon, and will begin to push
inland across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert tomorrow. Ahead of
this storm system, tightening pressure gradients will encourage
another day of gusty south winds, with sporadic gusts of 40-50 mph
across much of the region. Strongest winds remain favored across
our far western zones, namely the Owens Valley and Esmeralda
County, where a few gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible.

Meanwhile, with heights beginning to fall in response to the
approaching low pressure system - temperatures today are running 5
to 10 degrees cooler than this point yesterday. Even cooler
temperatures are expected Sunday as the trough axis moves
overhead, with afternoon highs bottoming out 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than the calendar day average. In addition to the cooler
temperatures, some light instability driven shower activity is
likely as the cold pool aloft moves overhead. These showers will
tend to favor the higher terrain of our western and northern zones
but may result in some locally gusty winds and a stray lightning
strike or two, as they traverse some of the warmer lower desert
elevations.


Any shower activity will diminish quickly with the loss of daytime
heating Sunday night. The trough axis will shift east by Monday
with temperatures returning to near normal values and lingering
northwesterly breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

A dominant ridge pattern will take hold over the long term period,
with temperatures climbing well above normal. There is some variance
among model guidance in how strong the ridge building in will be,
particularly for Wednesday onward, with the 25th and 75th high
temperature percentiles varying by 6 to 8 degrees, but regardless of
which scenario plays out, above normal temperatures will prevail.
This will translate to temperatures in the 80s in Las Vegas to
potentially approaching 90, with temperatures in the 90s to near 100
in the lower elevations of the Colorado River Valley and around
Death Valley.


Meanwhile, aside from passing high clouds, skies should be mostly
clear through the long term period as the jet stream lifts well to
our north. With temperatures climbing and a deepening mixed layer
expected, daily breezes can be expected, particularly in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will turn southwest by 05Z.
Speeds will decrease overnight, but occasional gusts to 25kts are
still expected at times. Southerly winds return Sunday with gusts to
25kts continuing.  No significant cloud cover is forecast through
tonight.  On Sunday, FEW to SCT clouds, AOA 10kft AGL is expected by
afternoon, and a few showers in the vicinity of the field will be
possible by 00Z Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southerly winds will continue area-wide through
this evening, with the strongest winds expected in the Owens Valley
including KBIH, where gusts over 40kts are possible.   Winds will
diminish some overnight, but most regional TAF sites will still
experience winds of at least 15kts into Sunday morning.  Clouds will
increase across the Sierra and the Owens Valley later this
afternoon, and a few showers will be possible near KBIH this
evening.  A few isolated showers are also possible at KBIH and KDAG
tomorrow afternoon, while areas farther east will not see shower
chances until Sunday evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adair
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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