Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291749 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage later this
afternoon as max temps reach their convective potential. While
severe storms are not expected, with a slow storm motion, some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The main story through Saturday continues to be the northwesterly flow
aloft, with several smaller disturbances sliding across our area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible across at least the
west half of the forecast area through Saturday. The best chance
looks to be north of PIR this afternoon. The driest areas looks
to be over far eastern SD and west central MN. The sfc high
currently stretches from ND through eastern SD through MN and
southern Ontario. It will continue to slowly exit the Northern
Plains through the start of the weekend.

The return of southeasterly moistening air will slide in this
afternoon, with today being the last day with highs below normal.
80s will return cwa wide on Saturday.

The pressure gradient will increase Saturday night through Sunday,
as the sfc high lingers across the Great Lakes region, and low
pressure organizes over Saskatchewan through eastern Montana and far
western SD. Could have some stronger storms develop Saturday night
on the stronger LLWS. Have 30-40 percent POPs to account for this,
which may need to be increased by later shifts. Southerly winds
around 15-20kts will be common Sunday as the best moisture exits
to the east and another round attempts to move in from the west.
The consistent northwesterly aloft will be changing as we move
into Sunday. The 500MB low over northern British Columbia will
sink across central Alberta Sunday, allowing a ridge to build
across the Northern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The GFS, EC, and Canadian models all show very good agreement
through the long term with the upper level and surface features to
affect our region. Two significant upper level low pressure areas
moving across southern Canada along with two associated surface
boundaries will bring good chances of showers and thunderstorms to
our region. The first upper level low pressure area and surface
front will move across the region from Sunday night through Monday
night. There should be a brief break in the action for later Monday
night and Tuesday with weak ridging moving in. Then the next upper
low pressure area will move across southern Canada with its
associated surface cold front pushing across our region Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Each system will have plenty of
instability and moisture accompanying them. Wind shear will be
questionable for the first system for severe storms but looks
stronger with the second system. The temperatures will be above
normal through much of the long term and cooling down to closer to
normal on Thursday. Monday through Wednesday will be very warm/hot
in the upper 80s to the mid 90s across the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF forecast period. Will
be watching showers and thunderstorms across the area today, and
have included VCSH mention at both KMBG and KABR for the time
being as northern SD is anticipating more coverage. Expecting
this activity to dissipate after the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TMT



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