Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 290548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1148 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 907 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

For the most part showers across the area are weakening with the
exception of along in a zone from northern Carbon county southeast
across the south Laramie Range to I-25 between Cheyenne and
Wheatland. This is where the HRRR, NAM and RAP13 want to keep
isolated showers going through about 2 AM before weakening.
Updated forecast keeps isolated showers in these areas with skies
clearing most elsewhere tonight. Otherwise, changes to the
remainder of tonight into tomorrow minor.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued a quick update to raise PoPs a bit across the northern
Nebraska Panhandle for line of showers and thunderstorms moving
southward along a cold pool out of the Black Hills area. We may
get some gusts to near 55 mph with that line as it moves southward
into Nebraska, however higher resolution models weaken it as we
cross over into evening and loss of instability.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

The threat for small hail and gusty winds from stronger storms
will continue through the early evening across northern zones.
Currently, the best environment for strong storms is across the
northern Nebraska Panhandle where LAPS analysis shows CAPE values
of 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear of around 30 kts. Definitely looks
like the current storm skirting Chadron is capable of producing
some small hail. Deep boundary layers and unidirectional
northwesterly llvl flow will be conducive for gusty winds. Have
scattered showers/tstms continuing through around 03Z, mainly over
the northern half of the CWA. Weak front will move southward into
Colorado overnight.

The focus for convective activity will shift southward to areas
near the Colorado Border on Monday. Weak northerly winds during
the morning will shift to easterly by the early aftn, with upslope
and convergence increasing along the southern Laramie Range. Have
generally chance PoPs from Laramie to Cheyenne. Although midlvl
northwesterly flow is not particularly strong, still cannot rule
out a stronger storm right along the Colorado Border, although
better instability is shown over northern Colorado. Storm activity
on Tuesday will likely be more limited with only a slight chance
of storms along the southern Laramie Range as instability is
rather limited. Highs will warm around 5 degrees on Tuesday, back
to near normal for the end of May.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper ridging will be building over the central and northern
Rockies through Thursday. Moisture return will be on the increase
Wednesday over the plains east of the Laramie Range. A weak
shortwave will pass over the top of ridge on Wednesday afternoon
which may serve to spark a few thunderstorms especially off the
higher terrain. Model MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg late Wednesday so
would not be surprised to see a stronger storm or two. Low level
E`ly flow topped by 30kt W`ly flow aloft may help provide modest
shear as well. Ridging builds almost directly over head on
Thursday with 700mb temps topping out at around 12C. Could see
temps well into the 80s over the plains Thursday afternoon so
trended temps up just a bit. Weak front moves through Friday with
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon especially
east. Models then diverge with the EC rebuilding significant
ridging aloft for the weekend while the GFS is further west and
weaker with the ridge, allowing weak disturbances to track across
in the northwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers continue to move southeast across the forecast area at
this hour but do not anticipate any impacts at the terminals. This
activity should wane around 09Z. Another round of showers looks
to develop Monday early afternoon mainly near the Laramie Range
and locations to the west. May even see an isolated t-storm or two
as well. Northwest winds will gust 20 to 25 kts after 17Z at the
Panhandle sites.


Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

No fire weather concerns through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will warm to above normal by Wednesday and
Thursday, with minimum afternoon humidity values falling
to 15-25 percent over portions of southeast Wyoming.
However, winds will be relatively light.




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