Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Temperatures today overall are expected around 5 degrees warmer than
Monday. Full mid October insolation, light surface winds with little
if any gusts following the light BL winds and GFSLAMP guidance.
Each day has been getting will get successively warmer, and that
should continue through Wednesday. The response from a deep
westerly low pressure over Canada will sharpen the surface trough
further east, drawing warmer air off the high terrain of Colorado
and New Mexico. Models translate this into temperatures in the low
80s by Wednesday, however wind speeds are not very strong due to
the weak gradient and proximity to the trough axis. Although most
of the area will remain mild in the 40s, patchy frost could occur in
the far western counties and more specifically in low lying areas
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Much more of a surface pressure gradient develops by late Thursday
and into Friday, as well as a marked increase in the southerly
surface winds by Friday. The downslope component will probably be
lost however, model consensus is betting Wednesday will be the
warmest day of the week. A strong upper trough will move across the
Pacific Northwest beginning Friday, as the the stronger pressure
gradient develops over the high plains region. Gusty conditions
should develop Friday followed by the passing of a Pacific cold
front across western Kansas during the middle of the weekend. At
this time, the GFS and ECMWF would relegate thunderstorms along
the moisture transport region/warm sector ahead of the 850 mb
front (in this case meaning the best chances for rain or storms
across our eastern counties). Weather remains fall-like into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Winds will range from SE to SW as
a lee trough prevails across the region. 5-10 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Fire weather conditions appear to remain limited throughout the
week as surface dew points persist in the 40s and 50s with light
wind through about Friday. Winds increasing by Friday might create
more concern for outdoor burning especially across the western
half of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  78  45  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  80  45  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  78  46  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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