Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301757
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Upper low, located over east central New Mexico at 00z Sunday,
will lift northeast into central Kansas by early this afternoon.
As this system crosses the Texas Panhandle early this morning
another round of steadier and heavier precipitation will spread
into western Kansas. All the models continue to agree with
significant snowfall from this next round of steadier and heavier
precipitation. Additional accumulations of 10 to 14 inches is
not out of the question along the mid level deformation
zone/TROWAL axis ahead of this upper low from roughly Johnson to
Garden City to around Scott City. Time frame for this heavy
snowfall will be from 4 am to 4 pm. Lower snow totals expected
further east with much of this next round of precipitation near
and east of highway 283 being mainly liquid. At this time
confidence is still not high on where the rain to snow line will
be located early today so will continue to keep the gradient of
snowfall as is for now. Will monitor this through the early
morning hours and if the ran/snow line ends up being further east
then higher snow accumulations will be possible in the current
winter weather advisory area and may have to upgrade a few
counties to a winter storm warning.

Tonight...Ongoing precipitation will taper off from southwest to
northeast as the upper level storm system moves from eastern
Kansas into Iowa. As the precipitation ends the skies will clear
and the winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph. This will produce
favorable conditions for temperatures to fall back into the 20s
for locations that have received significant snowfall. Further
east temperatures will be warmer but still 30 to 35 degree lows
still will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A northwesterly down slope flow will develop Monday and 850mb
temperatures warm roughly 8 to 10 degrees from 00z Monday to 00z
Tuesday. Despite this warming trend the weekend snowfall will
limit the warm up across portions of western Kansas. Will undercut
guidance in locations where the more significant snow fell while
trending more towards the warmer 850mb mix down temperatures
elsewhere.

Chances for rain will return late Tuesday and Wednesday as
moisture and lift improves across western Kansas and an upper
level trough approaches from the northwest. As this upper level
wave crosses the Central Plains mid week a cool dome of high
pressure at the surface will build into western Kansas. This will
bring an end to the early week warming trend but as an upper level
ridge axis begins to build east into the Rockies late week
temperatures will once again warm back to more seasonal levels as
a period of dry weather returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Snow and blowing snow will continue to affect all TAF sites through
late this afternoon resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys. Snow will taper off
this evening while low stratus layer slowly erodes west to east
overnight returning VFR conditions to all TAF sites by early Monday
morning. A very strong surface low lifting slowly north across
eastern Kansas will keep a tight pressure gradient in place across
western Kansas through early this evening resulting in strong north
to northwest winds 35 to 45kt across extreme southwest Kansas. North
winds 25 to 35kt will persist further east across central Kansas due
to closer proximity to the surface low. Winds will subside this
evening while becoming more northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  32  59  38 / 100  20   0   0
GCK  36  28  50  34 / 100  10   0   0
EHA  38  30  56  37 /  90   0   0   0
LBL  39  31  63  39 / 100   0   0   0
HYS  35  33  57  39 / 100  50   0   0
P28  44  34  69  43 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-
045-064-078-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson


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