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000
FXUS63 KDDC 180517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TONIGHT:

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.

TOMORROW:

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  68  97 /  40  30  20  10
GCK  63  88  67  98 /  50  20  20   0
EHA  63  94  67  99 /  60  30  10   0
LBL  64  90  68  99 /  50  30  10  10
HYS  63  84  68  95 /  20  20  30  10
P28  66  86  70  94 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE