Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will develop in a moist and unstable air mass the
next few days. A few strong to severe storms will be possible the
rest of this afternoon and evening as well as Sunday afternoon and
evening. These storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall,
damaging wind gusts, and large hail. By Monday and Tuesday the
coverage of storms will diminish a bit with drier air and hotter
temps returning for the later part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty southeast winds continue on the backside of last nights cold
front. This is resulting in an increasingly moist and unstable
atmosphere across the region. As dewpoints continue to climb from
east to west, models are projecting PW values of 1" to 1.25"
across most of the area the next few days.

So far storm development has been slow to initiate. However
satellite views indicate that activity is forming as of early
afternoon just to our northwest along a surface convergence
boundary. Model consensus (including hi-res solutions) indicate
that this activity will expand as it moves southeast across our
CWA this afternoon and evening. It appears that the convection
will be helped along by a weak shortwave aloft that will rotate
around the periphery of the upper high currently located just to
our west over Arizona. With CAPE values climbing above 1500 J/kg
and decent deep layer shear, the threat for a few severe storms
will exist. The primary threats from these storms will be
localized heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding along with
the possibility of large hail. Gusty downbursts winds will pose
another threat to the region possibly resulting in additional
areas of blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

Sunday appears to be a carbon copy of today with moisture
remaining plentiful and another round of storm initiation to our
northwest before traversing the area in the afternoon and early
evening hours. Once again a severe weather threat will exist with
storms that develop Sunday. Meanwhile a storm threat will remain
in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as moisture lingers.
However storm coverage will be reduced as the new week gets
underway.

By Wednesday the upper ridge will be elongating west to east
across the desert southwest with upper flow becoming more zonal.
This should induce some lee troughing and allow our surface flow
to also become more westerly later in the week. This will bring
about some drying to the lower and middle atmosphere along with a
fairly quick warmup. Lowland temps could climb back to around the
century mark by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...
P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 through much of the period.  Expect
cluster of VRB25G40KT 1-3SM BKN020-040 to be ongoing over northern
areas and pushing SSE through about 06Z-09Z.  Mainly isolated storms
then expected until after 18Z when scattered to numerous storms
redevelop over north and push south, similar to period from 00Z-09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will remain across the region for the next few days with a
series of disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of
the area each afternoon and evening.  Some storms may produce
locally heavy rain, wind gusts over 50 mph and hail.  Greatest rain
coverage will be today and Sunday and then decreasing Monday and
Tuesday as flow starts to turn more westerly and pushes moisture
south of area.  Temperatures will remain much cooler through Monday
before warming back to near the century mark for the lowlands by
Wednesday. Relative humidities will also fall back into the teens
as temperatures warm back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  93  71  91 /  50  20  50  20
Sierra Blanca           70  91  67  89 /  30  20  40  30
Las Cruces              70  91  67  89 /  50  10  50  20
Alamogordo              67  89  66  88 /  50  40  60  30
Cloudcroft              51  65  51  67 /  50  70  70  70
Truth or Consequences   69  91  66  92 /  50  40  50  40
Silver City             63  90  62  89 /  60  40  70  40
Deming                  70  92  67  91 /  50  10  50  20
Lordsburg               71  94  67  93 /  40  10  50  10
West El Paso Metro      73  91  70  89 /  50  20  50  20
Dell City               68  92  66  91 /  30  20  40  30
Fort Hancock            72  96  70  91 /  30  20  40  30
Loma Linda              68  85  66  86 /  50  30  70  30
Fabens                  73  93  70  90 /  50  20  50  20
Santa Teresa            71  92  68  89 /  60  20  50  20
White Sands HQ          73  90  70  88 /  50  30  70  20
Jornada Range           67  91  65  89 /  50  30  60  20
Hatch                   69  94  66  93 /  60  20  60  20
Columbus                72  94  69  92 /  50  10  50   0
Orogrande               71  91  68  89 /  40  20  60  20
Mayhill                 56  73  55  75 /  50  70  70  80
Mescalero               56  76  54  78 /  50  60  60  70
Timberon                56  74  55  75 /  50  60  70  60
Winston                 59  83  57  84 /  60  80  60  70
Hillsboro               64  86  62  89 /  60  50  60  50
Spaceport               66  93  63  93 /  60  30  60  30
Lake Roberts            55  88  53  86 /  60  60  60  60
Hurley                  64  87  61  88 /  60  30  60  40
Cliff                   63  97  61  95 /  40  40  50  30
Mule Creek              65  95  63  94 /  30  30  40  30
Faywood                 64  88  61  89 /  60  30  60  40
Animas                  71  96  68  94 /  30  10  60   0
Hachita                 70  95  67  94 /  50  10  60   0
Antelope Wells          70  94  67  94 /  50  20  60  20
Cloverdale              68  92  64  89 /  40  40  60  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz


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