Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292030
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS EARLIER TODAY AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK
UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW MAY ALSO INDUCE VERY ISOLATED STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ANOTHER FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACCELERATE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. INITIALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
ON SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR BREEZY AT BEST. HOWEVER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL CONCUR WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
AGAIN PUSHING MORE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 8 AND 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH
OVER LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING MAY BRING ISOLATED STORMS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES OF
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TOO LITTLE MOISTURE INFLOW FOR RAIN.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AND SURFACE
TROUGHING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SOUTHEAST  TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS FLOW WOULD TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT
WATER VAPOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER PERIODS. HOWEVER
LATEST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MORE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING ONLY MODEST INCREASES. THUS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. IN ADDITION AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z-01/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 AREAS N OF I-10...SKC-FEW100-120
SOUTH. A FEW ISOLD -SHRA BKN060-080 POSSIBLE IN MTN AREAS. W TO NW
WINDS OF 15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 03Z TO AOB 12KTS...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SW AFT 12Z AND INCREASE THROUGH DAY TO 10-20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS TO RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS AND ANOTHER ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MOST LOCATIONS UNDER 20 MPH EXCEPT POSSIBLY AROUND THE NM
BOOTHEEL REGION ON SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ENTER FROM EAST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND BRING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN...MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  80  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  78  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              47  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  76  51  67 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              34  54  37  51 /  20   0  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   44  75  50  71 /  10   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             40  71  43  67 /  10  10   0  20
DEMING                  44  79  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  81  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  80  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               47  79  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            51  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  75  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  50  81  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            50  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          50  77  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  78  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                44  80  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  77  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  63  40  53 /  20   0  10  20
MESCALERO               38  64  40  57 /  10   0  10  20
TIMBERON                39  63  41  59 /  20   0   0  20
WINSTON                 37  68  40  64 /  20  10   0  20
HILLSBORO               43  74  47  69 /   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               45  76  49  72 /   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            35  69  38  66 /  10  10  10  20
HURLEY                  41  73  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   37  77  42  71 /  10  10  10  20
MULE CREEK              35  75  40  69 /  10   0  10  20
FAYWOOD                 42  74  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  45  82  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  80  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&


$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



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