Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220921
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL STREAMS...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND ARROYOS. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS RESULT OF A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED
BACK INTO THE REGION. MUCH OF THE RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
FOCUSED IN AREAS WEST OF RIO GRANDE WITH SOME FLOODING ALONG
CREEKS AND DRAINAGES NOTED. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN QUIET SO FAR BUT MAY SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION. A STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMOVE SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO HELP FUEL THE ISOLATED
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL AS RAINS DECREASE
AND SKIES BECOME LESS CLOUDY. THE OVER ALL CIRCULATION PATTERN
WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE 0F MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.

BY FRIDAY EVENING A DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM CLOSING
OFF INTO A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PULL A PLUME OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE STORMS
COULD BE QUIET ACTIVE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO FUEL THEM. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MAY ALSO PLAY A CONTRIBUTING ROLE IN BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE TROPICS. A STRONG WEST FLOW BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WILL FLUSH OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z - 23/12Z...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5000 FEET. HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY THE CLOUDS. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN DIMINISH AFT
23/06Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH MOST AREAS HAVING STILL WET SOIL CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE RUNOFF THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...SMALL CREEKS...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK UP TO NEAR NORMALS BY
TUESDAY AND REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT OF SOIL AND FUEL
MOISTURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  66  82  65  86 /  70  50  10  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           76  60  78  58  82 /  70  40  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              80  63  80  63  84 /  60  50  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  63  83  62  87 /  70  50  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              60  49  63  47  64 /  80  60  30  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  62  81  61  82 /  60  40  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             77  59  79  58  82 /  50  40  20  20  10
DEMING                  82  63  83  62  85 /  60  50  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               84  64  85  63  87 /  50  40  10  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  66  83  65  86 /  70  50  10  10   0
DELL CITY               79  62  80  61  81 /  70  40  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            83  66  84  63  86 /  70  50  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              75  61  77  60  78 /  70  50  10  10   0
FABENS                  84  64  86  61  86 /  70  50  10  10   0
SANTA TERESA            82  65  83  64  85 /  60  50  10  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  63  81  62  82 /  60  50  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  61  82  59  85 /  60  50  10  10   0
HATCH                   79  62  81  60  82 /  70  50  10  10   0
COLUMBUS                83  64  82  63  84 /  60  50  10  10   0
OROGRANDE               79  64  81  63  82 /  70  50  10  10   0
MAYHILL                 68  53  71  52  70 /  80  60  30  20  20
MESCALERO               70  53  74  52  74 /  80  50  30  20  20
TIMBERON                70  53  71  53  70 /  80  60  20  20  20
WINSTON                 72  54  74  53  74 /  60  40  30  20  10
HILLSBORO               75  58  77  57  76 /  60  40  20  10   0
SPACEPORT               80  61  83  61  81 /  60  50  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            77  56  79  53  81 /  60  40  20  20  10
HURLEY                  79  62  79  59  82 /  50  40  20  20   0
CLIFF                   82  58  84  57  85 /  50  30  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              80  53  82  52  82 /  50  30  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 77  61  77  58  78 /  50  40  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  84  64  87  63  89 /  40  40  30  10   0
HACHITA                 83  62  83  60  83 /  50  50  20  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  61  85  60  86 /  50  50  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              82  61  83  60  85 /  50  50  30  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/04





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