Area Forecast Discussion
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228
FXUS64 KEPZ 232150
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
350 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues for the borderland...as the first
in a series of weather disturbances deliver widespread high winds
and a few light showers. High country could see a some light snow
into tonight...but little accumulation is expected. Trough slowly
exits Friday but windy conditions are expected most of day. Quiet
weather temporarily settles over the region Friday evening...before
breezy to windy conditions return this weekend as a second drier
upper level system moves through. Monday will see light winds...but
this will be short lived as yet another upper level system brings
the threat of winds and wintry weather towards middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest WV imagery outlines a well defined upper level trough over
the western states...with broad dry slot across southeast NM and
westsrn TX. Visible imagery illustrates dust plume regeneration
is evident from classic source regions in northern Chihuahua...with
advection NE to north central Otero and eastern Hudspeth counties
as of 245 pm. Area surface observations indicate the pacific cold
front associated with this trough...has passed your NWS office at
the Dona Ana county Airport around 230 pm. Just prior to that...a
peak wind gust of 53 mph was also recorded at the NWS. Temperatures
are falling to the upper 50s-mid 60s behind the front...with
current placement of broad trof axis/asscd DPVA generating cumulus
and associated light showers. Current readings near freezing are
generally noted at elevations of 8500 ft and above in the Gila
region.

The trough will slowly progress through the four corners this
evening and early Friday...before moving over the western plains
Friday afternoon. Upper level ridging will follow and temporarily
rebuild over the region Friday and early Saturday bringing warmer
weather to the area...before another trough brings breezy to
locally windy conditions this weekend. Another ridge temporarily
builds across Monday...followed by a larger disturbance that
continues the promise of high winds and wintry mix of weather by
mid week. Yet another large upper level trough remains forcast to
follow by the end of next week.



IMPACTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY - Strongest crosswinds along north-
south roadways...especially east of area mountain ranges such as
east El Paso...east of the Sacramento mountains and east of Hueco
tanks. High winds will also continue through the night along
higher elevation ridgelines...gaps and mountain passes. Additional
embedded short wave moving down back side of trof will maintain
gusty northwest winds Friday for our area.

IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND - Crosswinds for north or south bound
traffic. Localized blowing dust possible espcially Saturday...as
as drier system carries another pacific cold front through
Saturday afternoon. Winds shift northwest Sunday but it should
remain windy in some areas. With absence of significant high cloud
cover forecast from this system...efficient mix down of
strengthened winds aloft combined with a tightening sfc pressure
gradient across the area...will allow for the generation of these
winds this weekend.

IMPACTS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK - Winds and possible accumulating
mountain snow. GFS and ECMWF continue to agree in advecting a
large cut off upper level low pressure system across Arizona and
New Mexico. Sufficient cold air aloft and UL dynamics should be
sufficient in supporting at least light accumulating wet snowfall
across higher elevations in the Gila region and Sacramento
mountains. In addition...usual mechanisms required in generation
of gusty winds area wide for us have been apparent with these
solutions for at least the last few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150 with west winds 20-30G40KTS slowly
decreasing to 15-25G35KTS by 06Z.  Strongest winds will be on
eastern mountain slopes. Skies will become SKC by 12Z across region
with winds W to NW winds remaining around 15-25G35KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern will continue through the next week but the
worst fire weather conditions will be over this evening as winds
start to slowly subside.  There will continue to be near critical
conditions almost daily through Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler
Friday on back side of current storm system moving to the north of
the area.  A ridge will be moving eastward Saturday which will bring
a brief rebound in temperatures.  Cooler...closer to average
temperatures will then be the norm through the remainder of the
period. There will be a push of moisture into area Tuesday which
will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to eastern
zones Tuesday night. Upper low will move through Wednesday which
could bring a better chance for precipitation areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 48  75  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  72  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              43  72  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              44  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  49  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   45  74  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             37  62  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  40  71  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  68  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      49  74  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               41  75  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            48  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              47  67  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  47  76  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  73  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          49  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           39  73  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   43  74  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                43  73  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               45  74  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 34  61  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               32  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                32  56  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 31  65  29  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               39  71  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               42  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            27  64  26  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  64  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   33  71  31  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              35  66  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 39  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  40  70  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 39  70  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          40  72  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  66  39  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ413>417.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ401>412.

TX...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ419>424.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418.

&&

$$

22/26



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