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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
348 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WITH NO REALISTIC CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
QUITE WARM BY MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE BETWEEN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST AND A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE DRY
LINE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY LIFT FROM LOCAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWLAND TEMPERATURE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH NO REALISTIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EASTERN ZONES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON MEMORIAL DAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS ANTICIPATED INTO THE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHER. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BUT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A STEADY
WESTERLY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME MOISTURE RETURN
ON SATURDAY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE MAY
GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR CONDS THRU THE VALID PD. SE WNDS OF 8-12KTS EAST OF KDMN-KTCS
LINE WITH SW WNDS 5-10KTS WEST OF LINE UNTIL 18Z. AFT 18Z SW WNDS
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO EAST OF KELP-KALM LINE AND INCRS TO
10-14KTS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LINE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH CNTYS TIL 06Z WITH SSE WNDS OF 8-12
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS IN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING
IN THOSE COUNTIES.  THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK AS DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ONCE AGAIN AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT LIKELY BELOW CRITICAL
CRITERIA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP STILL LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 95  69  95  71  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  64  92  65  95 /  20  10  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              93  61  94  60  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              92  62  93  62  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              71  48  73  47  76 /  30  10  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  64  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  55  91  55  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  94  55  95  55  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               93  54  91  55  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  69  94  69  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               90  56  94  59  97 /  20  10  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            98  67  97  65 100 /  20  10  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              88  60  88  61  91 /  10  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  93  63  95  65  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  62  94  62  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          93  69  92  69  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  52  92  53  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   90  61  90  60  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                94  60  94  60  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               95  60  95  60  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 83  55  80  57  83 /  30  10  10  10   0
MESCALERO               82  49  83  49  86 /  20  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                81  49  81  49  84 /  20  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 85  51  84  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               88  59  87  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               92  60  90  58  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            86  48  85  48  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  89  56  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   92  47  93  50  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              89  49  90  44  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 89  58  87  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  94  58  92  58  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 92  55  93  53  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  57  93  57  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  55  89  54  92 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04