Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260916
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
316 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
East winds will push cool Canadian air into southern New Mexico
and west Texas while an upper level low pressure system develops
to the west. This weather pattern will bring cool below normal
temperatures along with areas of rain showers today and Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm up to near normal by Wednesday but
sufficient moisture will flow into the Borderland to produce a few
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front has pushed eastward across southern New
Mexico/west Texas with east to northeast winds advecting cooler
air into the region. Thus expect today highs temperatures to be
around 20 degrees below normal. Windy conditions have persisted
most areas tonight especially along western facing slopes but
gradients should relax with winds slowly diminishing during the
later morning and afternoon hours.

Meanwhile an upper level low pressure system was located over
central Baja early this morning with system expected to drift
slowly north into southern California by Wednesday afternoon.
Cyclonic circulation around the low center will advect moisture
from baja and the Gulf of Mexico northward into New Mexico and
west Texas with air mass being lifted up and over low level cool
air dome over the cwa. Thus expect rain showers over much of the
region today and tonight. A complicating factor is the warm air
advection aloft will also support amplification of upper ridge
through eastern New Mexico during this time. This feature and
associated warm air and subsidence aloft will reduce the rainfall
coverage Tuesday and Wednesday with highest precip probabilities
in the far west due to the areas closer proximity to upper low.
Temperatures will also rise to near normal by Wednesday due to an
increased southerly wind component aloft.

Upper ridge drifts east into the southern plains by Thursday while
slow moving trough enters the west coast. This pattern will
position the cwa into a deep southwest to southeast flow with
further advection of moisture pushing surface dewpoints into the
50s and lower 60s while precipitable water rises above an inch.
Air mass becomes more unstable with shower/thunderstorm activity
increasing most areas Thursday and Friday. 40 to 40 kt west to
southwest winds at 6 km may provide sufficient vertical shear
for an enhanced risk of larger hail and strong downbursts in
addition to locally heavy rains.

Flow becomes more zonal/westerly after Friday with inflow of of
warm but drier. Thus expect diminishing chances of rain Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 26/12z-27/12z.
Scattered areas of mvfr and isolated areas of ifr ceilings and
visibility in rain showers. Surface winds also gusting around 40
mph this morning especially along western mountain slopes. Areas
of strong turbulence below 5000 feet agl through 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
East winds from 20 to 30 mph will push cool Canadian air into
southern New Mexico and west Texas while an upper level low
pressure system develops to the west. This weather pattern will
bring cool below normal temperatures along with areas of rain
showers today and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up to near
normal by Wednesday but sufficient moisture will flow into the
Borderland to produce a few showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  52  73  58 /  50  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca           60  51  67  54 /  50  30  20  10
Las Cruces              65  50  73  55 /  50  30  20  20
Alamogordo              70  49  76  55 /  40  30  20  10
Cloudcroft              48  39  59  43 /  40  30  20  20
Truth or Consequences   70  49  73  52 /  30  20  20  20
Silver City             64  50  70  52 /  50  30  30  30
Deming                  66  48  73  52 /  50  30  20  20
Lordsburg               65  51  74  53 /  50  30  30  20
West El Paso Metro      66  53  73  58 /  50  30  20  10
Dell City               61  49  70  52 /  40  30  10  10
Fort Hancock            63  51  73  58 /  50  30  20  20
Loma Linda              60  47  67  54 /  50  30  20  10
Fabens                  66  50  73  56 /  60  30  20  20
Santa Teresa            65  53  73  57 /  50  30  20  10
White Sands HQ          66  52  74  56 /  50  30  20  10
Jornada Range           66  47  75  52 /  40  30  20  10
Hatch                   68  52  73  55 /  40  30  20  20
Columbus                64  52  73  55 /  50  30  20  20
Orogrande               67  52  74  57 /  40  30  20  10
Mayhill                 53  42  63  46 /  40  30  20  10
Mescalero               56  41  67  45 /  40  30  20  20
Timberon                54  41  64  45 /  40  30  20  20
Winston                 64  42  69  45 /  40  20  30  20
Hillsboro               66  45  72  51 /  50  30  30  20
Spaceport               71  48  74  53 /  30  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            59  41  71  48 /  50  30  40  20
Hurley                  66  48  71  51 /  50  30  30  30
Cliff                   69  43  76  49 /  40  30  40  30
Mule Creek              67  39  73  45 /  40  30  40  30
Faywood                 65  46  72  51 /  50  30  30  20
Animas                  67  49  74  51 /  50  40  30  20
Hachita                 64  46  72  51 /  50  40  30  20
Antelope Wells          62  47  71  52 /  70  40  30  20
Cloverdale              60  47  68  51 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for NMZ405>407-411-413.

TX...Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for TXZ418>420-423.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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