Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272142
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A GRADUAL
INCREASE...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT THEN
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY AFTER SEVERAL SLOW DAYS WITH
CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SLID OFF OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
DESERT ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY HAS INCREASED MOISTURE...WITH PW`S OF 1.1" TO 1.2".
MORNING KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWS SMALL CAPS FROM YESTERDAY GONE AS GOOD
COOLING ALOFT ERASED THEM. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEST OF DEMING TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF EL
PASO ARE THROWING OUT GOOD OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL
BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 50+ MPH
MID AFTERNOON BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES BY SUNSET. PEA-SIZE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT HIGH WBZ`S...AROUND 15000 FT MSL...AND WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE LARGER HAIL.

OVERALL TREND FOR THE WEEK IS TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. RELATIVELY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA...SO DESPITE UPPER HIGH RETURNING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEMING WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST. PW`S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.2" TO 1.4"
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.5" BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS IN LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A
LARGER SCALE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z - 29/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SCT-BKN080-120. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. WIND
GENERALLY 5-10KTS EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL HAVE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL LIKELY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN AREA MTNS...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE
LOWLANDS...AND AROUND 10 POINTS HIGHER IN THE MTNS. HAINES INDICES
VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  97  75  95  75 /  10   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           75  93  73  90  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              72  96  70  93  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              73  97  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              53  73  51  71  49 /  20  30  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  95  69  92  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  86  61 /  30  30  40  40  30
DEMING                  72  96  70  93  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               71  95  69  92  68 /  30  30  40  40  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  98  74  95  74 /  10   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               68  96  66  94  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  99  72  97  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LOMA LINDA              70  88  68  87  65 /  10   0  10  10  20
FABENS                  74  98  72  96  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            73  96  71  94  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  95  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  96  66  93  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   70  97  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                72  96  70  93  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72  98  70  95  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 62  81  61  79  59 /  20  30  10  20  20
MESCALERO               59  83  58  81  56 /  20  30  20  20  20
TIMBERON                58  81  57  79  55 /  20  30  10  20  20
WINSTON                 65  86  62  84  60 /  30  40  40  50  30
HILLSBORO               71  89  69  88  66 /  30  30  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               71  95  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  88  57  86  55 /  30  40  40  40  40
HURLEY                  64  90  62  86  59 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   64  93  62  92  60 /  30  30  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              61  92  59  89  57 /  30  30  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 68  89  66  88  63 /  30  30  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  72  95  69  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
HACHITA                 70  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  40  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  96  71  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
CLOVERDALE              66  88  64  88  61 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK







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