Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 282034
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
234 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible this
evening. And our rain chances, heavy at times, will continue
through at least Wednesday. Because of the rain and moisture we
will see our afternoon high temperatures several degrees below
normal. By the end of the week we will see isolated thunderstorms
with warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much has changed in our weather pattern, so guess what, we
will see more of what we saw yesterday. Currently a broad area of
upper level high pressure to our east and an upper level trough
just to our west in Arizona continue to pull up moisture into the
region from Mexico. The moisture along with the instability
associated with the upper level trough are helping to fuel
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and this trend is expected
to continue into the evening hours. A few of these storms may
produce very heavy rain with excessive runoff leading to flooding
and flash flooding. For Monday the upper level trough weakens but
by Monday evening another surge of moisture will move in from the
east so we will continue to see the chance of scattered
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, from Monday night through
Wednesday. By Friday the extended models try to dry us out. I`m
not sure I believe as of yet. The extended models have been
advertising a dry out at around day 5 of the forecast for the last
several days, but they models keep pushing it back, so my
confidence that next weekend will be dry is not very good. I have
put some isolated pops in the forecast for next weekend just to
cover the chance the weather doesn`t agree with the models.

Take a quick look at the temperatures. As you can imagine with all
the moisture, rain and clouds in the forecast we will see below
normal temperature for much of the week. Monday`s highs will be 3
to 5 degrees below normal, then as more clouds and moisture arrive
we will see Tuesday and Wednesday`s highs running 7 to 9 degrees
below normal. By the end of the week into the weekend the models
warm us up to normal, but that will all depend on if we dry out.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200 thru pd with sct to nmrs mountain
and sct lowland 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-050 mainly thru 06Z and after 17Z.
Wind gusts to 40kts with thunderstorms...otherwise E to NE winds
5-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Easterly low level winds will become established over the next 24
hours and continue across the Borderland for the upcoming work week.
This will keep good low level moisture in place and a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The main threat from these storms
will be locally heavy rain...especially as the week goes on and
ground starts to become saturated. Relative humidities will remain
above 35 percent for the lowlands and above 45 to 50 percent in the
mountains while temperatures will be a little below normal. Winds
aloft will remain fairly weak which will keep vent rates fair to
good.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  86  67  82 /  50  60  50  50
Sierra Blanca           64  85  63  81 /  40  60  40  50
Las Cruces              62  84  63  80 /  40  60  50  60
Alamogordo              63  86  62  81 /  50  50  50  60
Cloudcroft              47  66  47  63 /  50  70  70  70
Truth or Consequences   61  84  61  79 /  30  50  50  50
Silver City             56  80  57  76 /  30  50  40  50
Deming                  62  85  63  81 /  30  50  40  50
Lordsburg               62  88  63  84 /  30  40  30  40
West El Paso Metro      67  85  67  82 /  50  60  50  60
Dell City               64  86  62  82 /  30  50  50  50
Fort Hancock            67  88  66  84 /  30  50  40  40
Loma Linda              61  81  61  77 /  40  60  50  50
Fabens                  65  86  65  83 /  40  50  50  40
Santa Teresa            65  85  65  81 /  50  60  50  60
White Sands HQ          64  84  64  79 /  50  60  50  60
Jornada Range           61  84  61  80 /  40  60  50  60
Hatch                   63  86  63  80 /  40  50  50  60
Columbus                64  86  64  82 /  30  50  50  50
Orogrande               64  84  64  80 /  40  60  50  60
Mayhill                 51  71  50  68 /  50  70  70  70
Mescalero               52  74  52  70 /  50  70  70  60
Timberon                51  71  50  68 /  50  70  70  60
Winston                 51  78  51  74 /  30  60  50  50
Hillsboro               57  83  57  78 /  30  60  50  50
Spaceport               60  83  61  78 /  40  60  50  60
Lake Roberts            51  81  52  77 /  30  60  50  50
Hurley                  56  81  57  78 /  30  50  40  50
Cliff                   57  88  58  84 /  30  40  40  50
Mule Creek              53  85  54  82 /  30  40  40  60
Faywood                 57  83  58  78 /  30  50  50  50
Animas                  60  87  61  84 /  30  40  30  40
Hachita                 60  86  61  82 /  30  50  40  50
Antelope Wells          60  86  61  81 /  30  40  40  50
Cloverdale              58  81  59  78 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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