Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WE
ARE IN FOR A STARK CHANGE IN WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE POISED TO OUR SOUTH AND DUE TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE RESULTING WEATHER SHOULD BE A LOT CLOUDIER...A LOT COOLER...
AND A LOT WETTER. FRIDAY LOWLAND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DO YOU SOMETIMES GET THE FEELING YOU ARE SURROUNDED? WELL...WE
ARE...BY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST...SOUTH...AND EAST. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TIME-BEING WE ARE DRY RELATIVE TO MONSOON NORMALS WITH
LESS THAN .90" OF PW ON THIS AM`S SOUNDING AND PM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE L40S-N50. THAT IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE TYPICAL PM STORMS OF THE MONSOON SEASON THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WE ARE SEEING ONLY FLAT TO MODERATE CU MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THAT LURKING MOISTURE IS
SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND S HUDSPETH CO. THUS THOSE AREAS
POSE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WE EXPECT THE "FLOODGATES" TO PART AND
BEGIN ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ALL ON AN ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PACIFIC
LOW TO OUR WEST AND A GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. PW`S ARE EXPECT TO
SHOOT UP TO 1.5O"-1.65". BECAUSE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SW
WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN ZONES TO BEGIN RECEIVING PCPN
FIRST THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS TRACKING NE
INTO THE EASTERN GILA AND WESTERN SIERRA CO AND LUNA CO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO HUDSPETH CO EARLY
ALSO. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO HAVE
SPREAD EAST OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
TULAROSA BASIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LATER IN THE DAY
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE MOIST.

FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY`S. WE EXPECT
THICK AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT COOLER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AS THE COOLER TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK WITH
ONLY A WEAK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUS RAINFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION
VERSUS TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN EVENTS. GIVE ALL THE PARAMETERS THE
TOTAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS LOOKS TO FALL WITHIN THE .25 TO .75 INCH
RANGE. SOME MAY GET AN INCH OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVELY SHOVES THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.
THE WEST ZONES WILL QUICKLY DRY ENDING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES SEE RAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE BEST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND STILL HAVING PCPN
CHANCES BUT THE AREAS TO THE WEST LIKELY BEING DRY. WE`LL SEE MORE
SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE DRY TIME AND DRY AREAS THAN RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN UNDER A MORE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD STANDING
TROUGH HANGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OUR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS. KIND OF THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN.

WE`LL WATCH THE WED-THU PERIODS FOR A POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH OFF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE`S
INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT. THOSE TWO FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE DAYS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO VSBY BLO 1SM IN +TSRA SCT-BKN010-040 BKN-OVC060-100 AND
WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST WINDS ALOFT THAT BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND
TODAY ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HUMID TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH 40 TO 50
PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 PERCENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS THEN DROPPING BY 15 TO 20 POINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HAINES INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  80  68  88  70 /  40  70  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  75  66  86  67 /  40  80  50  30   0
LAS CRUCES              66  78  65  86  66 /  50  70  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  77  64  89  65 /  30  80  50  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  61  48  67  47 /  30  90  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  76  64  82  65 /  40  30  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             58  74  56  80  58 /  50  40  30   0   0
DEMING                  65  79  64  85  65 /  60  40  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               64  79  63  84  64 /  50  30  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  79  68  87  69 /  40  70  40  20   0
DELL CITY               67  80  64  88  67 /  30  80  50  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  78  67  91  69 /  50  80  50  30   0
LOMA LINDA              66  77  64  83  67 /  40  70  50  30  10
FABENS                  70  79  65  90  67 /  40  70  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            68  79  67  87  67 /  50  70  40  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  79  66  86  67 /  40  60  50  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  77  65  85  66 /  30  60  40  20   0
HATCH                   65  78  64  86  65 /  40  40  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  78  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  10   0
OROGRANDE               67  78  66  84  67 /  30  70  50  20   0
MAYHILL                 55  65  53  79  53 /  30  80  60  40  20
MESCALERO               55  68  53  78  53 /  30  80  50  40  20
TIMBERON                56  69  54  75  54 /  30  90  50  40  20
WINSTON                 52  70  50  80  53 /  40  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               61  75  59  83  62 /  40  50  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  76  64  83  65 /  30  40  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  73  55  79  58 /  50  40  30  10   0
HURLEY                  60  75  58  81  61 /  50  40  30   0   0
CLIFF                   59  76  54  81  52 /  40  30  30   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  76  51  78  51 /  40  40  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  75  58  83  61 /  50  40  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  84  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
HACHITA                 64  79  63  85  64 /  60  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  75  61  84  62 /  60  40  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              62  76  60  81  63 /  60  30  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.