Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 222055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
155 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
WILL WARM BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PREVAILING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A STRONG 130 KNOT H3 JET NOSES INTO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WHILE RIDGING BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
RESULTING MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO STRONG CAA ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
BORDERLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
DOWN INTO PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS TOTAL WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SNOW LEVELS DROP
QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THE REAL STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WIND...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ALL AGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE H7 FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WHICH
LOOKS TO BE VERY ROBUST WITH A GENERAL AREA OF 40 TO 50 KNOT H7
WINDS OVER THE AREA. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA...INCLUDING THE BLACK RANGE...AS WELL
AS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO RESULT IN BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS
THAT SHOULD EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY IN THESE AREAS BUT BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
COMING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF WIND CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRANKLIN AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT
ABOUT 9000 FT MSL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH THE
PREVAILING MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE WNW THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LEE SIDE WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFFECTING EASTERN PARTS OF THE CITY OF EL PASO WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AS WELL.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS TEMPS WILL RUN A
GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...LOOK FOR INCREASED BREEZES TO HELP
WARM TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE BRIEFLY BEFORE A PACIFIC FRONT
SWINGS PAST AND AGAIN DROPS TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS USUAL CONCERNING
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE DISPLAYING
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO THE CURRENT PACKAGE LEANS THAT
WAY. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS HAS BEEN INSERTED TO
COVER THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATE PAST. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING AGAIN AS WE APPROACH THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z- 24/00Z...
EXPECT P6SM WITH JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND
9KFT MSL WILL PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES...
WITH AWW CRITERIA (20G30KT) EXPECTED AT ELP BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARDS MORNING... BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY ON TUESDAY. A SCATTED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRAZE THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT (AROUND
50 KT AT H7) WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF GRANT AND OTERO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WHILE AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AROUND 9000 FT MSL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH IN THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN STARTING THIS EVENING...AND
SIMILAR GUSTS DEVELOPING ALONG EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING ALONG EASTERN SLOPES.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND STEADY NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 15-20 DEGREES BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL VERY SLOWLY WARM BACK UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY...VENT RATES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 41  49  25  50  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  46  23  48  28 /   0  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              37  48  22  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  48  19  47  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              19  27  11  32  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  47  21  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             31  43  20  44  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  50  22  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  50  22  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  48  27  50  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               34  50  17  51  26 /   0  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  52  24  53  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  43  23  44  30 /   0  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  38  52  21  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  49  23  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  48  26  49  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  49  14  49  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   35  50  20  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  51  23  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               35  47  21  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 25  37  17  42  28 /  20  30   0   0   0
MESCALERO               23  36  13  38  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                25  36  14  38  26 /  20  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 28  40  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  46  21  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               32  49  17  50  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            29  41  16  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  32  46  19  44  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   29  48  18  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              24  47  12  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  45  22  44  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  34  54  24  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 33  52  18  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          32  51  21  52  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              33  50  24  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     NMZ413.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     NMZ402-403-408.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     NMZ414>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     TXZ419.

&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN




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