Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221054
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
354 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be less windy and drier today and Monday as high pressure
builds over the area. Near normal temperatures are expected today
with above normal temperatures on Monday. Showers and breezy to
windy conditions and cooler temperatures will return Monday night
into Tuesday as another storm system moves through the area.
Cooler and mostly dry conditions will continue through the week as
a series of weak weather systems and cold fronts keep temperatures
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong winds have mostly subsided across the much of the area
early this morning. Wind speeds this morning are generally in the
10 to 20 mph range. locally windy conditions may persist a few
hours more for areas mainly east of El Paso. Dry conditions with
some variable high cloudiness will occur as a ridge of high
pressure moves over the region today. Temperatures will rebound
back to near or slightly below normals with northwesterly winds
continuing to gradually diminish through the day. Light winds with
seasonably cool temperatures area expected tonight.

The region will remain under the influence of the high pressure
ridge as it shifts eastward on Monday. Temperatures will warm to
above normal levels as a result of the increased southwest flow.
West to southwest winds will begin to pick up in the afternoon
into the 15 to 25 mph range for breezy conditions. The first part
of another double barreled weather system will move into the area
by late Monday and into early Tuesday.

This deepening trough will generate lowland rain showers and
mountain snows for areas mainly west and north of Las Cruces by
the afternoon on Monday. Precip chances will peak Monday night
with the mountain zones having the most accumulation. Snow levels
will be down around 6000 feet in the Gila region and down to 7000
feet in the Sacramento mountains. Snow amounts will vary from 1 to
4 inches in the Gila Region with around 1 to 2 inches in the Sacs.
Temperatures will drop back below normal on Tuesday as cooler air
moves into the area with the trough and a Pacific cool front.

The local weather pattern will remain unsettled as a the second
part of this complex weather system moves through the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will have less moisture
to work with and will not produce much in the way of showers or
precipitation. Winds will increase into the 20 to 30 mph range on
Wednesday with locally stronger winds for areas El Paso and
eastward. This secondary system will allow an even colder air mass
into the area with temperatures to drop well below normal on
Wednesday.

For the remainder of next week, the nation will be under a deep
long wave trough pattern that will keep temperatures below normal
locally. The pattern will bring weak systems through the area but
largely associated with a dry continental air mass that will keep
rain chances minimal. A series of cold fronts will reinforce the
cold air over the region and keep temperatures well below normal
through the end of the week. Next Saturday may be the coldest with
a direct tap of Arctic air filtering into the region. Long range
projected temperatures will day time highs will be in the mid to
upper 40s for the much the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites with variable high level
clouds above 20kft. Wind speeds have dropped over most the area
early this morning with winds to expected to be out of the west at
10 to 20 knots through 00z...diminishing to less than 10 knots
through 12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lighter winds and drier conditions will occur today and Monday
with temps warming back above normal by Monday afternoon as a
ridge passes overhead. Another upper system will bring increased
winds Tuesday along with a slight chance for rain and a few light
mountain snow showers Monday night and early Tuesday. Snow amounts
in the Gila Region may vary from 1 to 4 inches with lesser amounts
in the Sacramento Mountains.  In the wake of this system temps
will remain cooler as drier air again becomes established. Min RH
values look to stay at or above 30 percent for most locations
throughout the forecast period. Vent Rates will be poor to fair
today, but will improve to good on Monday to very good on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  37  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           53  35  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  33  64  38 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              51  34  61  38 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              39  31  45  24 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences   50  33  58  36 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             45  29  53  29 /   0   0  20  70
Deming                  52  31  63  35 /   0   0   0  30
Lordsburg               52  32  62  34 /   0   0   0  50
West El Paso Metro      55  36  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               56  32  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            57  35  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              49  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  33  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            54  34  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          53  36  64  41 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           52  32  62  36 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   52  32  63  37 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                54  33  66  38 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande               53  35  64  40 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 48  33  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               44  31  54  29 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                44  29  52  28 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 46  26  52  27 /   0   0  10  60
Hillsboro               49  31  57  33 /   0   0  10  40
Spaceport               50  31  60  35 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            43  22  46  24 /   0   0  20  80
Hurley                  47  29  56  32 /   0   0  20  60
Cliff                   50  28  57  30 /   0   0  20  70
Mule Creek              47  27  52  29 /   0   0  30  80
Faywood                 49  30  58  32 /   0   0  20  50
Animas                  54  32  66  36 /   0   0   0  50
Hachita                 54  30  65  35 /   0   0   0  40
Antelope Wells          56  33  66  36 /   0   0   0  40
Cloverdale              50  35  61  35 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04 Lundeen


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