Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across southern New Mexico and west
Texas tonight and this will bring cooler and occasionally windy
conditions over the Borderland late tonight and Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm up to above normal by Thursday before
another cold front causes cooler and possibly windy weather again
next Friday. Temperatures should then rise above normal early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front now moving into eastern New Mexico will continue to
move to the west and southwest and will advance across the CWA
late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Tight surface pressure
gradients behind the front will induce strong easterly winds
especially over southern zones with wind speeds further enhanced
along western facing slopes. Thus have issue wind advisories for
appropriate sections of west Texas where sloping terrain and
gravity will cause greatest wind speeds. Cold air advection will
also lower tomorrow`s temperatures to around 5 degrees below
normal.

Wednesday and Thursday southern New Mexico and west Texas will be
located between high amplitude upper ridge along the west coast
and deep troughing over the mid west. This will place the region
in a dry subsiding northwest flow aloft with the subsidence and
abundant sunshine pushing temperatures up to near normal
Wednesday and around 5 degrees above normal Thursday.

A short wave will drop southward across the southern Rockies later
Thursday supporting a rather strong cold front moving to the
southwest across the CWA. Strong east winds will again be possible
behind the front with pronounced cold air advection lowering
Friday high temperatures down to around 10 degrees below normal.
Earlier model solutions suggested a chance for rain or even snow
over the Sacramento Mountains but latest data showing dry weather
across the region.

After Friday combination of subsidence aloft and more plentiful
sunshine will cause another warming trend with Monday
temperatures expected to be back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR conditions to continue with P6SM SKC through period. Winds will
be NNW 10kt then switch arn 06Z to NE 12G22KT WITH FROPA. Aft 06Z
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC W slopes/passes below mtn tops.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure aloft over the western United States will bring
dry conditions through the next several days. Temperatures will rise
up above normal again today, while Min RH values drop into the lower-
 10s across the lowlands and mid- 20s in the mountains (above 7500
feet). Backdoor cold front will bring gusty winds to some areas late
tonight and Tuesday, but temperatures will drop to around 4 to 8
degrees below normal for Tuesday afternoon, before slowly recovering
Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger backdoor cold front will bring
much cooler temperatures to the area by Friday.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  70  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           48  66  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              46  68  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  50  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   48  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             44  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  48  72  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      53  68  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               45  68  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            50  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  65  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  49  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  69  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          51  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           42  67  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  70  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                50  71  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               49  70  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 37  54  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               36  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                35  55  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 37  63  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               45  69  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               45  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  70  24  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  41  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   36  74  29  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              34  74  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 44  69  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  48  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  73  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          46  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  72  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for
     TXZ418-420.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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