Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. FOR THE COMING WEEK WE WILL
BE SUNNY AND DRY. WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEK...BUT WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN (AND SNOW) HAVE BEGUN. WE WILL BE WET (AND WHITE) FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS
OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA AND IT IS PUMPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US AN EXTENDED TIME OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOWS. THE RAINS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD ADD UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT SINCE IT WILL BE COMING DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
EXCEPT FOR MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IN THE MOUNTAINS WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7K FEET. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL WAVER BETWEEN 6K AND 8K DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE BATTLES WITH THE
"WARMER" AIR OFF THE SURFACE. BASICALLY IT COMES DOWN TO THIS. IF
YOU LIVE BELOW 6K YOU WILL SEE LOTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
(UPWARDS OF AROUND AN INCH)...IF YOU LIVE ABOVE 8K FEET YOU WILL
SEE LOTS OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (UPWARDS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES). BUT IF YOU LIVE IN BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET IT WILL RAIN
SOME...IT WILL SNOW SOME AND IT WILL RAIN/SNOW MIX SOME.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE VARIOUS MODELS TRY AND BRING A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 06Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH
MODELS STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH
THE NAM BEING ABOUT 60 MILES FURTHER EAST AS IT DROPS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOSER THE LOW IS THE MORE LIKELY THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW I`LL STICK THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH AGREES BETTER
WITH THE LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WE
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL WRAP UP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER SUNDAY THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DROPPED TO THE
SOUTH AND WE WILL BE IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE
US CLEAR SKIES BUT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z
LOTS OF CLOUDS...LOTS OF RAIN...LOTS OF WIND...LOTS OF LOW
CEILINGS TODAY...NOT A GOOD DAY TO FLY IF YOU DON`T HAVE TO. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDE SPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER IN
DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM TO GIVE US NUMEROUS LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RUN FROM BKN010-030 WITH
STIFF EAST WINDS MOST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND
FROM P6SM TO 1SM IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE LOTS OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE STRONG SIDE FROM THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH AND SNOW TOTALS IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE AROUND 10 INCHES ABOVE 7K FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WE WILL
SEE A WARMING TREND DURING NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL STAY DRY WITH
LITTLE WIND PROBLEMS. MIN RH`S WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY HIGH TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EVEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN
RH`S IN THE 40`S AND 50`S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 49  40  55  38  56 /  90  90  50  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           48  38  54  37  53 /  80 100  50  30  20
LAS CRUCES              47  38  53  38  54 /  90  90  50  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  36  52  34  54 /  90 100  50  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              38  28  39  25  41 / 100 100  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  36  50  35  54 /  80  90  50  30  10
SILVER CITY             45  36  48  35  53 /  90 100  60  40  20
DEMING                  47  37  52  36  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
LORDSBURG               49  38  53  35  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  42  55  41  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
DELL CITY               47  34  53  33  52 /  80 100  50  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  41  58  38  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
LOMA LINDA              45  36  50  38  52 /  90 100  50  30  20
FABENS                  51  38  55  36  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
SANTA TERESA            48  38  54  38  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  38  53  39  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           48  34  53  33  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
HATCH                   49  36  54  35  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
COLUMBUS                48  40  53  38  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
OROGRANDE               48  38  53  37  54 /  80  90  50  30  20
MAYHILL                 39  31  41  29  43 / 100 100  60  40  20
MESCALERO               41  29  42  27  45 / 100 100  60  40  20
TIMBERON                43  32  45  31  46 / 100 100  60  30  20
WINSTON                 42  33  44  32  49 /  80  90  60  30  10
HILLSBORO               46  36  48  37  52 /  80  90  50  30  20
SPACEPORT               48  35  52  34  57 /  90  90  50  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            46  34  47  33  52 / 100 100  60  40  20
HURLEY                  45  34  48  35  53 /  90  90  50  40  20
CLIFF                   48  39  48  32  59 /  90  90  60  40  20
MULE CREEK              46  37  47  29  56 /  90 100  60  40  20
FAYWOOD                 45  36  48  37  53 /  90 100  50  30  20
ANIMAS                  52  38  55  36  58 /  80  90  50  30  20
HACHITA                 51  37  54  34  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  37  54  33  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
CLOVERDALE              54  40  54  37  56 /  90 100  60  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




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