Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
713
FXUS64 KEPZ 250901
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
301 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE more day of 100 degree lowland heat today before an increase
in moisture and a shifting high pressure ridge aloft allow for
minor cooling across the Borderland beginning Tuesday. Monsoon
moisture is still pretty limited over the region today, so again
today only scattered mountain storms and isolated lowland storms
this afternoon and evening. Tuesday onward the upper ridge shifts
northwest to allow increasing moisture and decreasing
temperatures. This will mean an increase in rain and storm chances
for all areas. The best days for rain this week appears to be
Wednesday and Thursday. Enough moisture and instability will be
present each day to keep chances for storms in the forecast every
day through the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains parked over the region: keeping subsidence
warming in place, providing limited instability, and storm
inhibition the general condition. Monsoon moisture remains
limited: PWs below seasonal normals, dewpoints mixing low each
afternoon, just a thin layer aloft. These two atmospheric
conditions should mean very few storms, but our atmosphere has
been making the most of the minimal moisture/instability and
humbling the forecaster with more storms than expected in areas we
don`t expect them.

Today will be yet another HOT day (hottest of the week) with many
lowland locations seeing temperatures toping out with triple-
digits. Moisture will still be limited. However, the trends are
now beginning to reverse; after days of slight drying, moisture
will now begin to increase each day as the upper ridge shifts NW
toward S NV. This will allow the monsoon moisture to our west to
recirculate back over NM. Also a more SE flow will begin to draw
Gulf moisture across S TX into the region. Increased dewpoints/PWs
and slight cooling aloft will increase the instability and allow
for better chances for rain showers and thunderstorms across all
zones w/i our forecast area. Today there remains a gradient from W
to E of better to lesser moisture. Thus the POPs reflect that
across the region.

As high pressure begins to pull away a bit, temperatures will drop
a bit Tuesday and for the rest of these forecast days. Tuesday
and more so on Wednesday and Thursday the moisture becomes more
dispersed and uniform across the CWFA. Thus the SE zone POPs will
be higher and more equal to the rest of the forecast area. Wed and
Thu a broad inverted wave tracks west across TX off the Gulf. This
is generally diverted south of our region by the ridge over the
SW, but increased moisture does ride in for those days. Wed and
Thu appear to be the days with the best rain/storm chances for the
region. Flash flooding won`t be widespread, but the slow storms
motion and deeper moisture will increase the chances we will see
isolated occurrences.

Between Friday and Sunday we see the upper ridge make a move back
over our region, with models suggesting it may end up just to our
east. This pattern is similar to what we`ve seen recently. The
result would be to reduce the moisture and focus it west again.
Thus some lessening of POPs east with western areas keeping the
status quo. We don`t seem to flush the moisture thus we keep POPs
for all the zones through the end of the forecast cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 for much of period with mainly mountain SCT
VRB25G45KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN050-070 which could move onto the
lowlands mainly west of the Rio Grande early in the period. Winds
will be E to SE east of river and N to NW west of river before
shifting to E to SE aft 15Z. Wind speeds will generally be AOB
12kts except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will be shifting westward into the southern Nevada
region over the upcoming week. As it does, moisture will get
recycled around the high and there will be increasing thunderstorm
chances each day...especially Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
starting Tuesday look to drop below 100 degrees and remain that
way into the weekend. With the falling temperatures and increased
moisture, relative humidity values will be on the increase to
above 25 percent areawide.

&&
Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423-424

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  76  98  75 /  10  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           95  72  93  69 /  10  10  20  20
Las Cruces              98  72  96  70 /  10  20  20  30
Alamogordo              98  72  94  70 /  30  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              75  52  72  54 /  50  30  60  50
Truth or Consequences   97  72  95  71 /  30  30  30  30
Silver City             91  66  89  64 /  60  40  40  40
Deming                  98  72  98  71 /  30  30  20  30
Lordsburg               97  70  97  69 /  30  30  30  30
West El Paso Metro      99  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  20
Dell City               97  71  95  68 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Hancock           100  75  98  73 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda              92  70  90  68 /  10  20  30  30
Fabens                 100  74  98  72 /  10  10  20  30
Santa Teresa            99  74  98  73 /  10  20  20  30
White Sands HQ          97  74  94  72 /  10  20  30  30
Jornada Range           98  68  96  68 /  10  20  20  30
Hatch                   99  71  98  70 /  20  30  20  30
Columbus                98  74  97  73 /  20  30  20  20
Orogrande               97  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30
Mayhill                 83  58  80  57 /  30  20  50  40
Mescalero               86  58  82  56 /  50  30  50  40
Timberon                81  56  79  54 /  30  20  50  40
Winston                 89  60  87  59 /  60  40  50  50
Hillsboro               95  67  93  66 /  50  40  30  40
Spaceport               96  70  94  69 /  20  30  20  40
Lake Roberts            93  57  90  56 /  60  50  60  50
Hurley                  93  66  91  64 /  50  40  30  40
Cliff                   96  64  94  61 /  50  40  40  30
Mule Creek              95  61  92  59 /  50  40  50  30
Faywood                 95  65  93  64 /  50  40  30  40
Animas                  97  70  98  70 /  30  30  30  30
Hachita                 98  70  98  71 /  30  30  30  20
Antelope Wells          96  70  95  68 /  30  30  20  20
Cloverdale              88  66  90  64 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

14-BIRD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.