Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250946
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
346 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be dry and windy today as the southwest flow over the
region strengthens across the region. More fine blowing dust will
also occur for the lowland deserts this afternoon, reducing
visibility to a mile in dust prone areas. Winds will be more
westerly and slightly lower in speed on Thursday. Friday and the
Memorial Day Weekend will be dry and sunny with near normal
temperatures and lower wind speeds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An approaching upper level low will strengthen the southwest over
the region and tighten the surface pressure gradient, resulting in
dry windy conditions across Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas
this afternoon. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
mph will occur over a wide area.  Winds will be strongest over
the Bootheel area of Southwest New Mexico with a wind advisory in
effect for the region this afternoon. Winds will also be locally
stronger along eastern slopes of area mountains today and tonight.

The upper level low pressure system will move through Northern
New Mexico on Thursday. There will not be much moisture coming
with this system with no chance for precipitation. Winds will
continue to be strong but will be more oriented from the west and
will be lower in speed. Temperatures will be several degrees
cooler on Thursday after a pacific cool front moves through the
region.

Friday and Saturday will be in between systems with a weaker flow
aloft that will keep wind speeds lower across the region.
Temperatures will continue to be several degrees cooler on Friday
with winds more oriented from the northwest. Saturday will warm
back up to normal readings with winds shifting to more from the
south by the afternoon.

For Sunday and Monday, Memorial Day, a weaker and broader low
pressure will move closer to the area from the west, helping to
re-establish a southwest flow over the local area. Models hint at
an intrusion of moisture into areas east of El Paso on Sunday but
it should not be anything significant with rain chances remaining
near zero percent. On monday the moisture will have moved further
to the east, maintaining dry conditions through the holiday
period.

In the long term lookout for next week, moisture from the east may
make a return to the area for Tuesday through Thursday of next
week. This moisture surge will be in combination with a cold front
from the east and a weak upper level trough pass overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z-26/12Z...
A strong southwest flow aloft will generate windy conditions this
afternoon with SW winds at 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Areas of blowing dust south of a KLSB-KALM line may reduce
visibility to 1 to 3 SM between 18Z and 03Z. Winds will diminish
most areas overnight, except at KELP where locally stronger
downsloping winds may persist through 12z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strengthening of the southwest flow by an approaching upper
level system will result in windy conditions this afternoon that
along with expected low humidity values will set up ref flag fire
weather conditions mid day into the evening hours. Temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler and wind speeds slightly lower for
elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday. Friday and the
Memorial Day weekend will be dry with lower wind speeds. Moisture
may rise slightly over areas east of the Rio Grande but should not
result in any chance of precipitation. A pattern change next week
will bring more moisture to the region with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  63  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           90  61  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              88  54  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              88  58  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              65  42  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   85  52  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             78  44  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  87  50  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               86  47  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      90  62  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               92  55  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            94  61  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              85  58  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  92  60  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            90  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          87  61  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           87  52  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   88  51  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                89  55  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               88  58  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 76  48  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               76  45  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                74  43  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 77  39  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               82  49  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               85  51  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  36  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  80  43  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   83  40  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              80  35  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 82  45  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  86  49  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 87  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          86  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              80  47  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for NMZ404>406.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 Lundeen



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