Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171003
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
403 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Friday. Moist
unstable air will flow back into the region this weekend and early
next week. As a result showers and thunderstorms will increase
Saturday and Sunday with heavy rains and even flash flooding
possible across the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly winds will sustain inflow of warm dry air mass across
most of southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Friday
bringing slightly above normal temperatures with little rainfall
to the region. However beginning today high pressure aloft will
become recentered over central Texas while upper low moves into
southern California. Concurrently at low levels large summer
thermal/heat trough will cover the southwestern United States with
surface high moving into the southern plains. This pattern change
will induce deepening south to southeast winds with moisture
gradually advecting back into the CWA. Surface dewpoints above 50
will make air mass weakly unstable allowing for isolated
showers/thunderstorms over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties
this afternoon and tonight. Storm coverage will spread further
east to the Rio Grande by Friday night.

By Saturday afternoon high pressure at the surface and aloft over
central Texas will combine with western thermal surface low and
west coast upper trough to sustain low and mid level flow
trajectories from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California. Thus
very abundant moisture will cover southern New Mexico and west
Texas including surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s
and high above normal precipitable water amounts around 1.3 to 1.6
inches. The higher moisture will also act to destabilize air mass
with Saturday and Sunday afternoon CAPEs around 600 to 1200 J/kg.

Models are indicating possible short waves/disturbances aloft
moving into the CWA from the south with low level convergence and
lifting occurring along weak surface trough. In addition expect
upslope flow to initiate storms along sloping terrain. These
factors all indicate potential for deep convection with the high
moisture content supporting locally heavy rains and possible flash
flooding this weekend into Monday. In areas of higher instability
hail also seems possible along with moist downbursts.

East to west oriented upper ridge expected to extend across the
southern Rockies by Tuesday which may reduce convective coverage
later periods. However moisture and instability will still be
present later periods with the precipitable water around 1.1 to
1.4 inches and CAPEs generally from 700 to 1500 Tuesday through
Thursday. So will outlook scattered convection most areas later
next week with expectations that heavy rain will still occur over
at least isolated locations.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z.
Isolated areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers
and thunderstorms over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties mainly
from 20Z to 06Z. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions expected with
skies CLR-SCT070-100. Surface winds around 5 to 15 kt most
locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Friday. Moist
unstable air will flow back into the region this weekend and early
next week. As a result showers and thunderstorms will increase
Saturday and Sunday with heavy rains and even flash flooding
possible across the Borderland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           95  70  91  68 /  10  10  20  20
Las Cruces              93  68  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              93  69  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              74  52  71  53 /  20  10  30  20
Truth or Consequences   93  68  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             88  63  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  94  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               92  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      96  73  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               96  72  94  70 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Hancock            97  74  95  72 /  10   0  20  20
Loma Linda              92  71  88  66 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                  97  73  95  71 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            96  72  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          94  70  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           94  68  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   95  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                94  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               95  71  93  70 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 85  59  82  57 /  20  10  30  20
Mescalero               85  59  82  57 /  20  10  30  20
Timberon                83  59  80  57 /  20  10  30  20
Winston                 88  61  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               93  66  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               94  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            88  59  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  91  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   91  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 91  65  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  92  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 92  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              88  65  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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