Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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669
FXUS63 KFSD 042316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VERY MILD CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN VERY SLOWLY
BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. WITH THE LULL IN WINDS AND THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING...AT LEAST BRIEFLY AS
TEMPERATURES RADIATE TO LOWS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BETTER
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL BE IN NORTHWEST WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATEST. MAINLY 40 TO 45 REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
LIGHTER ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE LAST TO SET
UP. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER HIGHS...MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S IN NORTHWEST
IOWA TO 80 TO 85 ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  850 HPA TEMPS HAVE COOLED 1-1.5C IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND HAVE COOLED HIGH ON FRIDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW RECORD LEVELS
FOR SIOUX FALLS AND HURON. SIOUX CITY/S RECORD OF 100 SEEMS TO BE
OUT OF REACH.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT...UNLESS WE CAN
SATURATE IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  HAVE CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THERE...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IS QUITE CONDITIONAL...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.

SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK BREEZY WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT
925 HPA.  WINDS SEEM TO BE STRONGEST BELOW 900 MB...AND AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH MOMENTUM DECREASES. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.  WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE TRAJECTORY OF SMOKE PLUME TO THE NORTH...AS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE REGION WOULD BE ON SATURDAY. THAT
SAID...FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AM NOT SURE THE
POTENTIAL IS OVERLY HIGH.

HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH COMPARED TO GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE GFS RUNNING 24
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...HAVE LEFT GUIDANCE POPS AS IS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...MALDONADO



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