Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280439
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light rain and snow will continue through the overnight hours for
parts of the area primarily affecting FST.  Ceilings will gradually
get lower throughout the night and be at the lowest from 12z to 15z,
but ceilings are expected to improve by 18z Sunday.  Winds will be
light and variable overnight and will shift to the southwest by the
afternoon with some possible gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

UPDATE...

Update on the status of the Winter Storm Warning for the Davis
and Apache Mountains, Marfa and Alpine areas and Winter Weather
Advisory for western Pecos County.

DISCUSSION...

IR satellite imagery was showing cloud tops cooling over southwest
Texas this evening ahead of a shortwave trough over Mexico.  At
28/0245Z, radar returns were showing bands of precipitation
streaking northeastward over the Warning and Advisory areas.  A
few calls to Marfa, Alpine and Fort Davis yielded reports of snow
falling in those areas, with near 1" of accumulation 7 WNW of
Alpine as of 28/0130Z and snow beginning to stick in Alpine at
28/02Z, with the same in Fort Davis.

The latest NAM is trickling in, and indicates snow will continue
to fall over southwest Texas tonight.  Since 4 to 6 inches of
snow are still possible in these areas, the Winter Storm Warning
will remain in effect until 28/09Z.  Further, north and east there
is a dry layer in the low to mid levels so precipitation will have
to moisten this layer for appreciable precipitation to hit the
ground.  When it does later tonight, surface temperatures are a
little warmer and snow accumulations should only be 1 to 2 inches
in western Pecos County.  Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory
will continue. Think precipitation will be too light any further
northward or eastward for any expansion of the Winter Weather
Advisory.  Will continue to monitor.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations continue to show intermittent light snow
continuing over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western
Permian Basin. Significant snows have ended over the Guadalupe
Mountains and across Lea County New Mexico.  The HRRR and other
models suggest that lingering precipitation over these northern
areas will continue to wane while redevelopment will occur over the
higher elevations of SW Texas beginning later this afternoon into
evening.

While indications are that the positive tilt upper trough is
weakening/filling as it moves across the area, which is a negative
against significant snow, current QFP for this evening and BUFKIT
sounding interrogation suggests that snow redevelopment is
likely...especially over the higher elevations of SW Texas.  The
Marfa Plateau and the Davis Mountains could see significant snowfall
tonight.  The western half of Pecos county could also see some minor
snow accumulations.  For now, will issue a winter storm warning for
heavy snow for higher elevations of Presidio, Jeff Davis, and
Brewster County.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for Pecos
County.  Both the warning and advisory will be extended into the
overnight period.  However, most of the activity will probably occur
this evening.

As this upper trough rapidly exits the area tomorrow morning, zonal
upper flow is expected.  Surface lee trough development just east of
the Rockies will result in a quick warmup for our area tomorrow and
Monday.  However, a significant cool down is forecast for later
Monday into Tuesday.  The big question for now is what type of
precipitation will fall next week.  With shallow cold air in place
and an expected elevated warm later, indications are that freezing
drizzle will the predominant precipitation type most of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Pecos.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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