Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail today with winds becoming gusty out of
the south by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low over northern Mexico will move northeast today
bringing a small chance for showers to the Big Bend and eastern
Permian Basin. The increase in clouds from this low will keep
highs from increasing much, though the MET seems to be overdoing
the cooling a bit. A second low will quickly replace the first
system and move east along the U.S./Mexico border bringing a
second low chance for showers to southeastern New Mexico on Sunday
though fewer clouds will help highs rise back into the 60s.

Zonal flow will then cause above normal temps and dry conditions
for the early part of next week, but things get interesting
Thursday as all models continue to show a very strong cold front
arriving. There is better model consistency regarding the surface
features than the upper level features, meaning they are in good
agreement that very cold air will be moving into the area, but
there is considerable uncertainty on PoPs/QPF/sensible weather.
For now have gone cold with forecast temps, below MEX guidance and
well below the SuperBlend consensus. Models show the entire column
cooling below freezing fairly quickly so if there is any
precipitation, it would probably be snow. This could have a big
impact on one of the busiest travel holidays of the year so we
will monitor this closely.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  40  65  38 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       58  35  64  36 /   0   0  20  30
Dryden                         52  38  66  42 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  56  43  69  40 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  39  58  39 /   0   0  30  30
Hobbs                          53  35  62  35 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          51  28  62  33 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  40  65  39 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         54  39  65  38 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           56  35  68  38 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10/


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