Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 092054
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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