Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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250
FXUS64 KOUN 061119
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY 16Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THINK
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE TOO LOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE 1
TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. NOT SURE ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AS CAPPING MAY BE RATHER
STRONG AND THE GREATEST LIFT WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET LEFT EXIT REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY FORM OVER THE PANHANDLES OR
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S WILL KEEP CLOUD BASES RATHER HIGH AND DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER CAPPING. WEAKER HIGH
BASED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AS WELL SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THESE WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND NON-SEVERE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LOW AND
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR COMPARED TO SATURDAY. FIRST
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM NEAR A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...NOT SURE ABOUT STORM
COVERAGE DUE TO STRONG CAPPING...THOUGH APPEARS LIFT WILL BE
STRONGER ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STORMS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE WEAKEST CAPPING AND
GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE AIR WILL BE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ANY SUPERCELL COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO AS CLOUD BASES WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF LINES OF STORMS FORMS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO STORM EVOLUTION AND THE AMOUNT
OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MORNING STORMS MAY BE ONGOING MAINLY EAST OF
I-35...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR A
DRYLINE THAT MAY BE NEAR I-35 AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST LIFT AND GREATEST MOISTURE MAY KEEP THE
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST.

TUESDAY MAY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN MANY
LOCATIONS. MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL RISE ABOVE 90 DEGREES. INCREASING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD CAP THE AIR AND NOT ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPPING MAY LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...KEPT
LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN MANY LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         86  59  85  62 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  59  86  63 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           87  60  87  60 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     84  59  85  63 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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