Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 101630
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds will persist across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma
through the afternoon and evening. Farther west, clearing skies
will allow temperatures to rise a bit more, and some readings may
rise a few degrees above the current forecast.

Otherwise, expect a breezy day with somewhat warmer temperatures
than yesterday.

No changes are planned for this morning, but if temperatures rise
significantly more than expected, we will need to update them
later.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Lower level cloud cover will gradually shift east this morning
with mainly high level clouds off and on throughout the day.
Sufficient sun along with gusty south winds will help temps to
rise into the 40s and lower 50s across the area today.

The winds will aid in bringing moisture northward and still
appears to be some chance for light rain or drizzle across far
southeast Oklahoma late tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise,
much warmer day expected on Sunday with temps approaching 70
degrees along the Red River south into north Texas with 50s and
60s elsewhere.

First in a series of fronts will move south through the area
this afternoon and evening with a cool down expected for Monday.
Temps will be back closer to seasonal norms. Will get a
reinforcing shot of cooler air Tuesday. Front may tap into just
enough moisture for a few light rain showers across far southeast
Oklahoma again on Wednesday.

Quite a bit of uncertainty for the latter part of the
forecast. Medium range models show some light precipitation
developing across the area as early as Thursday and lingering
into the weekend. However, big differences exist with surface and
lower level thermal profiles. This will be significant in
determining what type of precip occurs if in fact it does
develop. Some of these differences are likely due to the pattern
change that takes shape by the end of the week. Both GFS and
ECMWF develop a large western trough which then shifts east into
the plains by next weekend. However one would suggest mainly
light rain transitioning to light snow, while the other would
have more in the way of a rain or freezing rain/drizzle potential.
Will for now go with some mention of freezing precip as we usually
have a period of waa over the top shallow cold airmass when we get
southwest flow this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  40  59  30 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         49  40  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  44  68  33 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           49  36  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  38  53  25 /   0  10  10   0
Durant OK         49  43  68  39 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/03


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