Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 121420
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT BRINGS STORMY
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY.  UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES EXCEPT MORE TLC TO THE SKY GRIDS. AWAITING NEW SYNOPTIC
MODELS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
TODAY...WITH NOTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E
MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER WE COULD STAND SOMETHING UP
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER IS ERADICATED.  HAVE SCHC
UP N TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
WITH ONLY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEAT ACROSS THE CWA. PW VALUES BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING THAT STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES. WITH CAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT/STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...CREATING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
FINALLY USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE MOST SITES HAVE BEEN MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PATCHY ALTOCU
HAS ALL BUT PREVENTED IFR FOG FROM FORMING...AND ANY MVFR MIST
SHOULD BE GONE BY 13Z.

TODAY WILL OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH A HOT AFTERNOON...AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER WV TERRAIN.

AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG JUST ABOUT
ALTOGETHER TONIGHT.  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BRUSH NORTHERN WV
TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING E ACROSS OHIO.

EXPECT LIGHT SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








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