Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO
SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE
WEST TO DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...AND
IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST...AS MOISTURE AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KTS MONDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR REMAINDER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING MEMORIAL DAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THAT AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVAILING...CIGS AOA 4000 FEET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV


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