Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271534
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1134 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak east to west frontal boundary just to our north will
move little. Several disturbances and copious moisture will bring
heavy rainfall potential Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM update. Adjusted clouds and pops this afternoon...more
sunshine between rather disorganized afternoon thunderstorms...
and storms most numerous in the south with the deeper moisture.

Previous discussion...
Any morning dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z.

A dissipating frontal boundary remains across the northern portion
of the area through this evening. The combination of this
boundary, together with precipitable water from 1.5 to 2 inches
and diurnal heating will be enough to produce showers and storms
this afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce localized
heavy downpours capable to produce localized water problems along
their path.

High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands, to
the mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area
through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving
Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming
into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still
in place capped POPs around 80 percent.  That wave should move
through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold
front south.

A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have
likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday
night with just low chance POPs lingering.

Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit
harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max
across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for
Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA.

Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds,
expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime
highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended
period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier
weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15z Wednesday thru 12Z Thursday...
Thru 02z...Any lingering MVFR ceilings becoming VFR sct-bkn
4000-6000 feet AGL by 17z. Thereafter...SCT showers and tstms
developing but remaining rather disorganized. VFR conditions will
prevail outside any strong storms.

After 02z...initially sct-bkn 5000-7000 feet AGL with loss of
convection...then increasing clouds from the southwest. Becoming
ceilings 5000-7000 feet 07z-12Z with SCT showers redeveloping
over the south by 12z. Overnight fog also redevelops after 06z
tonight with localized IFR/LIFR river valley fog
expected...especially if clouds are slower to increase.

Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts
in thunderstorms this afternoon.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly
affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. Fog potential tonight depends
greatly on cloud coverage.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and
evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending,
in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous
afternoon or night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ/JMV



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