Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 252048
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
448 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid as mid summer like conditions return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5 PM Thursday...
Removed PoP across the area during the next few hours following
satellite and radar trends. Rest of forecast remains
representative.


Previous discussion below...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

The warmth and muggies are in full force today and this looks to
be the start of a prolonged spell of hot and humid conditions.
The culprit for this pattern is a persistent upper level ridge
centered over the S Appalachians with abundant low level
moisture...helping to create the tropical feel in the air.

As for sensible wx...the cu from today to wane this evening with
loss of heating. Before it does so there will be isolated
shra/tsra around in this rich low level moist environment. A weak
frontal boundary will encroach overnight and all but dissipate
with just a small chance for a shower across N WV. Any dense river
valley fog should be confined to locales that received rain this
morning.

Friday will feature more heat and humidity but probably not as
high dewpoints as was observed today. Thus thinking any heat
advisory headlines will be avoided with heat index values topping
out in the mid to upper 90s across the Lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As 330 PM Thursday...

No changes necessary...a fairly quiet pattern. Hot and humid
weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across
the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances
across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend
will reach into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As 330 PM Thursday...

Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however,
quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well
defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward
posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over
our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this
time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it
flattens.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

18Z Thursday through 18Z Friday...

Any remaining MVFR cu will scatter and lift into VFR category by
20Z...dissipating this evening with loss of heating. There is an
isolated shra/tsra threat this afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary will encroach upon the area
tonight...dissipating as it attempts to cross. There is a small
chance for a shra across N terminals but chance too small to
include in TAFs. Thinking dense river valley fog will be confined
to sites that received rain this morning so have N sites in IFR or
worse fog developing overnight...a bit faster for KEKN. Elsewhere
thinking some 6sm hz is possible.

Any fog will dissipate in the 12 to 13Z time frame. There could be
a brief period of MVFR clouds during the morning hours. We are
looking at just a sct cu field as the day progresses...in the 4
thsd foot range.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ



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