Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









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