Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ







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