Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 202342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINS IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSES THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS TSTM CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KY CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AND APPROCHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STARTING LITTLE OR
NO PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z. AN MCS CROSSING SOUTHERN IN AT
18Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...THIS SYSTEM DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND DIE BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS
OF WV OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...INTRODUCE
SMALL POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 06Z...SPREADING EAST TOWARDS
12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE
TO HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...AND
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WHICH SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPCOMING DYING MCS.

A WARM FRONT DISSECTS OUR CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THIS TIME AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UNDER PLAYED
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY EXPECT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH DYING MCS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE NAM AND CMC MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER H5 VORTMAX BUT STRONGER WAVE ON DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL BE TRACKING SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WX.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LLJ FEEDING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
PWATS TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IS
DEFINITELY THERE WITH SOME TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LOCATION OF
WHERE THIS SETS UP IS IN QUESTION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS AXIS
INTO NORTHERN ZONES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS LOCATION ACROSS E KY/S WV
24 HRS AGO. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE
HOPE THAT THE 00Z RUNS CAN OFFER SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY REGARDING WHERE THE AREA OF CONCERN SETS UP. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NAM APPEARS TO DEVELOP POTENTIAL A MCV ON FRIDAY FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE HVY RAIN THREAT. THIS WOULD DRIVE THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH THRU THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO A MCV ATTM. WILL TRY TO SHOW A DRYING TREND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING TO SW BRIEFLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE STOUT RIDGE AMPLIFYING
OVER MS VALLEY. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA BUT
WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE SW AND THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
ESE AND SHOULDN`T AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z. AIRMASS RATHER
SOUPY AND THE SFC FLOW LIGHT. AS CLOUDS THIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z-12Z BEFORE IMPROVING AFTER 12Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROCH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING AND HTS-
PKB AND CRW-CKB COULD SEE MVFR SHRA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. BEST CHC FOR
MVFR TO IFR TSTMS AFT 18Z AS SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ONSET AND
EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST
RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS







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