Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.