Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 100311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1011 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WV IN
RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX. AT THE 03Z UPDATE HAVE REDUCED ALL TAF
SITES TO IFR AND THEY WILL STAY THIS WAY PAST 12Z. CIGS 1 TO 2
THOUSAND FEET AND VIS 1 TO 3 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN
DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB



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