Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 031920
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PITTSBURGH AND BLACKSBURG SOUNDINGS CAME IN THIS MORNING WITH
EXTENSIVE CAPE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE 12Z TIME
FRAME...SO WE WERE SET UP FROM THE START FOR CONVECTION FROM AN
INSTABILITY PERSPECTIVE. MOISTURE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE LIMITING
FACTOR AS WELL AS ANY REASONABLY ORGANIZED FLOW. THE RESULT IS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BUT HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO FIRE A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. AREAS THAT CLEAR AND RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT VALLEY FOG.

THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
WEAKNESSES IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
AREA...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E
CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN
SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...LOW POPS WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD
THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E
CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO
CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OH RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW FIRING ACROSS THE AREA
WARRANTING VCTS FOR THE 19Z TO 23Z PERIOD. NO PREVAILING TSRA IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW...WHICH SHOULD IN THEORY LEAD TO A FOG FORECAST
SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER REMAINS A
CHALLENGE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE RAIN
AFTER A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD...FOG TIMING COULD CHANGE AND
INCREASE.

MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...IN THIS
PERSISTENT PATTERN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS
FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



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