Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260248
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1048 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts east tonight. A cold front will cross Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front passes
Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by a closed upper level low
moving in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...

Not much change for the front tomorrow, but did tweak dew points
and RH to better match obs which the HRRR picked up on.

Previous discussion follows...Models are in good agreement with a
cold front moving rapidly eastward across the area Monday. The
front will reach the Ohio River by early afternoon and in the
mountains by evening. Even with the speed of the system, models
have a combination of decent dynamics and pooling of moisture to
near 2 inches along the front. Thus, a band of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front. However, QPF
amounts will only be on the order of a quarter to half an inch,
thanks to the speed of the system. SPC continues to outline a
marginal risk of severe weather, and will continue this in the
Hazardous weather product. Models also have a prefrontal band of
convection forming Monday afternoon along and east of the I79
corridor. Not too certain about an organized area of convection
there, so will go with scattered convection there in the moist and
unstable air; ahead of the frontal band of convection. Convection
will then ramp down fairly quickly in the west behind the front by
end of period...with even some sunshine by later afternoon. Milder
tonight with increased moisture and southerly winds picking up
late, especially in the west. Highs Monday will still reach into
the 80s ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Continuing from the near term forecast, the cold front should move
quickly through the mountains, and take the trailing POPS with
it. Closed low drops south through the Great Lakes...with a lobe
in the cyclonic flow and a cold front developing along the Ohio
Valley. The bulk of the frontogenesis will exist in the
southeastern half of the CWA ahead of the upper level
lobe, keeping these two forcing features separate as they arrive
Wednesday. Dropping low level temperatures and 1000-500mb
thicknesses signify a wholesale airmass change with the broad
closed low over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Operational GFS, in a bit of a surprise, has now trended towards
the operational ECMWF with the closed low aloft oscillating around
over the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members still lean towards an
quicker exiting open wave aloft...but the GFS ensemble mean
changes from 00Z to 12Z look to be coming more in line with the
aforementioned operational long term models. From a sensible
weather standpoint, this typically results in a more off than on
precipitation scheme and a temperature forecast that can end up
cooler than the guidance numbers suggest. For the time of year,
nothing seems out of the ordinary in the forecast based on
seasonal norms, however.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1045 pm Sunday...

VFR and mostly clear to start with. Should see some IFR
cigs/vsbys return to EKN and likely BKW though may be difficult
to get IFR at other sites due to an approaching frontal system.
The front should move through the area Monday afternoon bringing a
wind shift, gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms and likely MVFR
conditions with localized IFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of fog and stratus
reformation tonight may vary. Timing of band of convection with
the front Monday may be a bit faster than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             MON 09/26/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/JW
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW


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