Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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163
FXUS61 KRLX 271917
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses late today and this evening. A stronger
cold front crosses Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

Cold front will pass through CWA this afternoon and evening
with associated convection pushing east of the mountains by
around 06Z. Moderate instability and shear profiles support
linear convection with gusty winds being the main threat.
However, up until now, cloud cover has been suppressing sfc
heating, so much of the development that we have seen so far has
been forced by convergent airflow, especially over central and
eastern KY, where visible satellite imagery depicting numerous
CU cloud streaks aligned with the mean flow. Expect
precipitation associated with these streaks to continue to track
east into the evening. After some clearing for the overnight
hours, expect a dose of fog along the rivers and in elevated
valley as the boundary layer decouples. High pressure settles
in on Friday after warm front lifts north of the region with a
warming trend. For temps went with a blend of the short term
models and kept the idea previous official forecast was
carrying.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...

We will look for a warm front to develop across the Ohio Valley
Friday night with rounds of convection. It still appears the
ridge will build in enough to keep most of this activity
northwest of the area but clipping portions of southeast Ohio.
This trend holds for Saturday as well with the active warm front
shifting further northwest of the area through Sunday. As a
result only slight chance pops was inserted across portions of
the area this weekend given lack of forcing and a decent cap.
Southeasterly low level flow will allow temps to soar well above
normal this weekend with the first 90 degree coded up for the
Kanawha Valley on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...

Cold front will push through the region Monday and Monday
night, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which
will be heavy at times. Much cooler air will push in behind the
front for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

Through this evening there will be bands of convection moving
through the forecast area. Will see mostly VFR condition with
MVFR and isold IFR in vicinity of any showers as a cold front
pushes through the area. Expect gusty winds ahead of front into
this evening and stronger gusts near convection.

Expect most precipitation to exit east by around 06Z with VFR
for the overnight. However, a moist boundary layer remains in
place and expect IFR in stratus in fog, especially along rivers
and elevated valley to develop from 09Z to 12Z. Cig and Vsby
values improve Friday as high pressure build in.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and storms,
and associated MVFR or worse conditions, may vary into this
evening. Formation and then breakup of MVFR stratocu behind the
cold front tonight may vary, as may fog formation late. Fog
formation may depend upon dissipation of stratocu in the
mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR fog possible Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC



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