861
FXUS63 KUNR 080323
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
923 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool and unsettled through Thursday with breezy conditions.

-Some high elevation snow is expected tonight through Wed
 morning.

-Warming up this weekend with drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Massive closed upper low over the Dakotas will linger through
Thurs, supporting cool and unsettled conds. The heaviest precip
has ended across the region. Although there will another push of
pos theta-e adv and associated precip tonight into Wed. Best
chance for precip will be across the far west (NE WY and the
northern Black Hills) where another half to one inch of water
equivalent is expected. In addition, snow will continue in the
higher elevations of the Black Hills above 5 kft, with another 2-5
inches of snow expected above 6kft tonight into Wed morning.
Winds will continue to wane through this evening with the
strongest winds occurring across NW SD and the far NE WY plains.
May end up extending the high wind warning through 03Z this
evening when the NPW is updated around 21Z this afternoon. The
wind adv for the the SD plains should be able to be expired at 21Z
and 00Z as scheduled. Best chances for precip the next two days
will be over NE WY with more scattered to isolated showers on the
SD plains. Breezy winds can be expected through Friday until an
upper ridge starts to build into the region. Flow will then
transition to NW aloft, with weak passing impulses expected in the
flow. This will support much warmer weather with semi-unsettled
conds as passing impulses support low chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 921 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Areas of rain showers (snow in the higher elevation areas of the
Black Hills) will continue on and off through the TAF period.
MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually spread into nern WY, nwrn SD,
and the nrn BLKHLS overnight, with IFR/LIFR conditions there by
12-15z Wednesday. These conditions will persist through much of
the day, even into parts of wcntrl and swrn SD, with MVFR
conditions for most of the rest of wrn SD. Conditions should
improve over much of the SD plains on Wednesday evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Bunkers