Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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065
FXXX10 KWNP 270031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Sep 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

            Sep 27     Sep 28     Sep 29
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          6 (G2)
03-06UT        4          4          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          4          4
09-12UT        3          4          4
12-15UT        2          5 (G1)     4
15-18UT        2          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        2          6 (G2)     5 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on
days one through three (27-29 Sep) due to CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

              Sep 27  Sep 28  Sep 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

              Sep 27        Sep 28        Sep 29
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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