Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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FXXX10 KWNP 311231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2015

            Jan 31     Feb 01     Feb 02
00-03UT        2          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        1          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     2          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm episodes are expected from a
recurrent high speed solar wind stream on 31 Jan - 01 Feb.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2015

              Jan 31  Feb 01  Feb 02
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm, particularly from Region 2268.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 30 2015 1216 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2015

              Jan 31        Feb 01        Feb 02
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with
a chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event from Regions 2268 and 2277.



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