Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 170026
DGTGUM
PMZ181-310200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1025 AM CHST THU AUG 17 2017

...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS FINALLY GETTING
SOME RAINFALL RELIEF...

SYNOPSIS...
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR. WEAK TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN
WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES. DURING LATE AUGUST THROUGH SEPTEMBER
AND EARLY OCTOBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA AND
COULD PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS BEGUN...BUT THE
PROCESS WAS ABOUT TWO MONTHS LATER THAN NORMAL. THE WESTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWS UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED ITS
SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4).
ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE AT THE SAME
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVEL. WOTJE AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN LONG-
TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY
ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION AND
MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...
RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND
WILL SEE IMPROVED RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...
MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS BUT FUTURE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST TO THE END OF THE
YEAR. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS. IF AN EL NINO SHOULD DEVELOP IN 2017...IT WILL BE WEAK.
CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM
THE SPRING.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  AUG (1-16)   AUG     AUG %
                               NORMAL  NORMAL
WOTJE             0.52         2.71    19
UTIRIK            2.56         3.77    68
AILINGALAPLAP     3.37         5.50    61
JALUIT            3.25         5.86    55
MAJURO            6.16         5.89   104
KWAJALEI/EBEYE    4.37         5.37    81


                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN    JUL    JUL %
                                                      (1-31) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  8.86   5.55    124
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  1.60   1.74     36
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  9.45   7.91     70
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  5.41   8.56     73
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93 13.03  12.52    105
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20 10.80   6.91     68


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE SEASONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SUN WILL RANGE FROM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
IN LATE AUGUST FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF MICRONESIA TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
IN MID-SEPTEMBER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MODERATE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD
ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE
NEAR ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND NEAR TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. LATEST
RAINFALL TRENDS INDICATE FUTURE COORDINATION REQUIREMENTS CAN BE
CONDUCTED AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT AND WARNING AREAS HAVE EXPANDED FROM THE
PHILIPPINES ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS. WATCH AREAS EXTEND EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES
AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON

$$


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