Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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AXUS74 KTSA 041650
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-051700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT HAS REEMERGED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DURING THE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER...FROM 10 JULY THROUGH 3 SEPTEMBER...CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL
RAINFALL /4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/ FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE
LACK OF RAINFALL COMBINED WITH EVAPORATION FROM THE SOIL HAS
RESULTED IN FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 1 SEPTEMBER
2015...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS CHOCTAW AND FAR
SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PITTSBURG...LATIMER...AND LE
FLORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS
TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM
PRODUCT. LOCAL STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES
WHEN THE USDM INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ HOSTS RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS..AND OUTLOOKS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
MUCH OF THE RAIN FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER EVAPORATED
DURING JULY AND AUGUST. THE LACK OF RAINFALL DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...COMBINED WITH THE
EVAPORATION...DEPLETED THE SOIL MOISTURE.

THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 3 SEPTEMBER 2015 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.0 TO 0.2 /WHERE
1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2 AND 10 INCHES
BELOW GROUND ACROSS THE D0-D2 AREA. AT 24 INCHES BELOW
GROUND...VALUES RANGED FROM 0.0 TO 0.4 ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
VALUES WERE GENERALLY 0.5 OR HIGHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA FOR ALL LEVELS.

AS OF 3 SEPTEMBER 2015...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER /ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER
ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM RAINFALL...IS ONLY 1 TO 10
PERCENT FULL FOR MUCH OF PUSHMATAHA AND ALL OF CHOCTAW
COUNTIES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
LOWER ZONE WAS 10 TO 30 PERCENT FULL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH REPRESENTS MODERATE TO SEVERE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES WERE 30 TO 70 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...MAINLY OVER PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHERN LATIMER...AND SOUTHERN
LE FLORE COUNTIES.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS OF 3 SEPTEMBER 2015 SHOWED ABOVE NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE DROUGHT AREA.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT FALL PLANTING OF CROPS AND FORAGE
IN THE DROUGHT AREA.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT FROM AROUND 0.10 TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN
TO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOST
OF PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES RECEIVED NO RAIN.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...THE D1-D2 AREA OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ONLY
RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 TO AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
50 TO 5 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ISOLATED AREAS IN CHOCTAW COUNTY RECEIVED LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF
THE NORMAL RAINFALL. IN THE LONGER TERM...CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL
RAINFALL /4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/ FROM 10 JULY THROUGH 3
SEPTEMBER 2015.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 3 SEPTEMBER
2015...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 21ST DRIEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. SINCE JULY 10...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 6TH DRIEST. IN THE LONGER TERM...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 9TH WETTEST FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON SEPTEMBER 9 AND 10.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2015 /ISSUED 31
AUGUST 2015/ INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW
MEDIAN RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2015
INDICATES THAT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY WITH ADDITIONAL
DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE SHORT TERM NATURE OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT...THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO LONGER TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ONGOING AS OBSERVED
BY LAKE AND RIVER LEVELS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...MOST OF THE
MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WERE
OPERATING PLUS OR MINUS 5 PERCENT OF THE TOP OF THE CONSERVATION
POOL. BOTH SARDIS AND HUGO LAKES IN THE LOWER RED RIVER BASIN WERE
OPERATING WITHIN 1 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL POOLS AS OF 4
SEPTEMBER 2015.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW IN THE LOWER RED RIVER BASIN WERE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL AS OF 3 SEPTEMBER 2015.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 2 OCTOBER 2015 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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