Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
AXUS74 KTSA 222200
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-231000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...SMALL AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

A FEW RAIN EVENTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER AND THROUGH
DECEMBER HAVE HELPED TO KEEP DROUGHT AT BAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44...AND
THEREFORE A SMALL AMOUNT OF SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 16 DECEMBER
2014...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN CREEK...AND FAR WESTERN
TULSA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...WESTERN TULSA...FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKMULGEE...AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER AREAS OF OSAGE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...TULSA...CREEK...
OKMULGEE...CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 21 DECEMBER 2014 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.8-1.0 ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ AT 2...10 AND 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
OF 0.6 WERE OBSERVED IN NORTHERN CREEK COUNTY AT 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND.

AS OF 21 DECEMBER 2014...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONGER TERM RAINFALL AND SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICITS. THE UPPER ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM
RAINFALL...IS OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 90-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 5 TO 30
PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF THE D1-D2 AREA IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT TO SEVERE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALSO HAD VALUES OF 10-30 PERCENT
FULL...WITH MOST OF THE AREA GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT FULL. THESE
LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES FOR THE D1-D2 AREA WERE 70 PERCENT TO LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. VALUES RANGED FROM 30 TO OVER 110
PERCENT OF NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE D1-D2 AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 21 DECEMBER 2014 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 60 MM
/0.8 TO 2.4 INCHES/ ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
A LATE APRIL FREEZE COMBINED WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED A
SHORT PECAN CROP IN OKLAHOMA THIS YEAR...AND THE ANNUAL HARVEST IS
ENDING EARLIER THAN NORMAL.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

COLD RAIN...AT TIMES MIXED WITH SLEET...AFFECTED EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON DECEMBER 17TH. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OT AROUND ONE INCH...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE LARGEST
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WERE
OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRISTOW TO BENTONVILLE. ANOTHER
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OF
AN ATOKA TO FORT SMITH LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. IN THE LONGER
TERM...ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
HAVE ONLY RECEIVED 50 TO 90 OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 21 DECEMBER 2014...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 45TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 27TH WETTEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 45TH WETTEST PERIOD. FOR THE LAST
90 DAYS ENDING 21 DECEMBER 2014...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 34TH
DRIEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 39TH WETTEST
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 35TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR JANUARY
1-DECEMBER 21...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 20TH DRIEST ON
RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 28TH DRIEST...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 33RD DRIEST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO
INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2014 /ISSUED 18
DECEMBER 2014/ INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID DECEMBER 18 THROUGH
MARCH 31 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN
THE D2 AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 692.52 FEET ON 12/22/2014...THE LOWEST LEVEL
SINCE THE LAKE WAS INITIALLY FILLED IN 1984. THE FOLLOWING LAKES
WERE REPORTING LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW THE
CONSERVATION POOL AS OF DECEMBER 22: SKIATOOK LAKE 54
PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 72 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 79 PERCENT...EUFAULA
LAKE 82 PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 92 PERCENT AND BIRCH LAKE 92
PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT
TULSA AND THE RED RIVER AT ARTHUR CITY WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
WITH VALUES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF
21 DECEMBER 2014. THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT RALSTON AND NEAR HASKELL WERE
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 23 JANUARY 2015 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.