Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FGUS74 KBRO 060015
ESFBRO
TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-062300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING OVER ALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE BROWNSVILLE HYDROLOGIC SERVICES
AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING BASINS...LOS OLMOS CREEK AND
THE RIO GRANDE.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY WET TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS HAS KEPT NEAR SURFACE
SOIL MOISTURE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SOILS ACROSS
THE REGION WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST RAINFALL EVENTS WITH LITTLE
OR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENTS
WOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

STREAMFLOW...
ON THE RIO GRANDE...RIVER LEVELS ARE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. RIVERS
AND CREEKS AS WELL AS ARROYOS IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA CAN
HANDLE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL VOLUME OF WATER DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PAST 30
DAYS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
THE FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AMISTAD IS CURRENTLY 62.5
PERCENT FULL OR 29.17 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. FALCON IS
CURRENTLY 34.6 PERCENT FULL OR 24.95 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION
POOL. COMBINED LAKE LEVELS AT BOTH FALCON AND AMISTAD IS AT 49.8
PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVELS. LAST YEAR...THE COMBINED
LEVELS WERE AT 44.7 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVELS.

RAINFALL...
ACCORDING TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) 90
DAY RAINFALL ANALYSIS...RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...BUT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCH LANDS. OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...MANY AREAS IN THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN HAVE RECEIVED NO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT OF
THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS.

CLIMATE REGIME...
THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MID MARCH ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...FEBRUARY AND MARCH ARE
THE DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR FOR THE AREA.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MAY
2015...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER...INDICATES A WEAK ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION)
PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH SPRING 2015. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...THE MARCH 2015 OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR
NEAR/ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH
THROUGH MAY 2015 SHOWS A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE MONTHLY AND THREE MONTH
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PREDICT THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECASTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW/NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL
DURING THE APRIL THROUGH JUNE TIME FRAME.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
EVEN WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2015...THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HYDROLOGIC AREA IS
CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE.

REFERENCES/LINKS:
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...GO TO (ALL LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?BRO

FOR THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER...GO TO (LOWER CASE):
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS: WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES: WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION: WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU

CLIMATE GRAPHICS: CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/

LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV

ENSO CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...RAINFALL OUTLOOKS...AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

$$

CASTILLO



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