Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 191944
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
031945-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE FLOOD OUTLOOK PREDICTS A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MAY...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE NUMBER OF RIVER
FLOOD EVENTS TYPICALLY DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND STAYS LOW THROUGH THE SUMMER UNTIL THE SECONDARY RIVER FLOOD
SEASON IN LATE SUMMER DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORM SEASON.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF APRIL
18TH ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC MULTISENSOR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...
MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS.

SNOW PACK...
NO OBSERVED OR EXPECTED SNOW PACK.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE SHORT AND LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS. WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SUMMARY...
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SUGGEST
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SPRING
FLOOD PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE SOUTHEAST IS NEARLY OUT OF ITS FLOOD/RECHARGE
SEASON SO CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT RIVER FLOODING TYPICALLY
DECREASES THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY.

FOR LONG-RANGE FLOOD RISK AT SPECIFIC FORECAST LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR...SEE THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE FORECAST
MAP THAT IS BASED OFF THE 90-DAY ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS.

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP

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