Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 181518
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1015 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A WETTER TIME PERIOD FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY
MARCH.  THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER
FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO
TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL...OR CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF FEBRUARY 16TH ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE NORTH CAROLINA.  ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...RIVERS ARE
PRIMARILY REPORTING NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AT THIS TIME.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...BASED ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR
FEBRUARY 18TH...HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES WERE BEING ESTIMATED ACROSS THE CHOWAN RIVER BASIN
AND PARTS OF THE ROANOKE RIVER BASIN.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SIGNFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  THE
LATEST CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES...THOUGH THE CHANCE AT REACHING WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IS
DECREASING AND IF EL NINO CONDITIONS DO OCCUR ARE ONLY EXPECTED FOR
A COUPLE OF MONTHS BEFORE RETURNING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.  BASED ON
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION AS WELL AS THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT BELOW...NEAR
NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.
SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR



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