Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 171807
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
100 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE
MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE LESS THAN TYPICAL.

OVERALL...CONSIDERING BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WINTER INTO
SPRING...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE LESS THAN USUAL.

FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST BASINS.  THE
EXCEPTION BEING THOSE SMALLER BASINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  THEY ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS IS BELOW NORMAL. SOME ABOVE NORMAL
AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, THE LAST
90-DAYS SHOW BELOW NORMAL FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE STATES.

RESERVOIRS...MANY OF THE RESERVOIRS ARE BELOW THEIR TARGET POOLS.
NORTH CAROLINA CORPS OF ENGEINEERS PROJECTS AT FALLS DAM AND JORDAN
LAKE DAM ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW THEIR GUIDE CURVE. THE SAVANNAH
BASIN AT THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ARE MUCH FURTHER
BELOW THEIR GUIDE CURVE. THE TWO MAIN CORPS RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE
LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. AS WE
HEAD INTO WINTER...THIS IS THE MAIN RECHARGE SEASON FOR THOSE AND
MANY OTHER RESERVOIRS IN THIS AREA.

SNOW PACK...SNOW IS FALLING OR WILL BE FALLING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND COULD END UP WITH UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THIS
SHOULD MELT IN IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA BY THIS WEEKEND AND
HAVE LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW THE NEXT 5 DAYS BEING QUIET WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE 7
DAY PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME...MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS SHOW
A BETTER CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 2ND WEEK OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING IN THE AREA.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WINTER INTO SPRING
SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH
MAY...THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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