Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS63 KKRF 121303
ESGELK

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
347 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ELKHORN R AT EWING NE 1N
EWIN1               9.0  10.0  12.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT NELIGH NE #2
NLIN1              11.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT NORFOLK NE 2SSW
NFKN1              12.0  13.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK ELKHORN R AT PIERCE NE 2SE
PRCN1              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   20   <5    8   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT PILGER NE
PLGN1              12.0  15.0  17.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT WEST POINT NE 1W
WPNN1              12.0  16.0  17.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT WINSLOW NE 2E
WLON1              17.0  20.0  23.0     8   16   <5    5   <5   <5
:LOGAN CR AT UEHLING NE 2SW
UEHN1              18.0  19.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MAPLE CR AT NICKERSON NE 4NW
NKRN1              11.5  13.0  17.0     9   18    8   12   <5    6
:ELKHORN R AT WATERLOO NE
WTRN1              14.0  18.0  21.0    13   24   <5    6   <5   <5
:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL AT BRADY NE CH 1
BDYN1               7.5   9.0  11.0    36   33   23   18   11   11
:PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR AT DARR NE 4SSE
DARN1              11.5  12.5  13.0    31   34   23   26   15   16
:PLATTE R AT OVERTON NE 3W
OVTN1               7.5  12.0  14.0    27   30   <5    5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT KEARNEY NE 3S
KEAN1               7.0   8.0   9.0    17   18    8    8   <5   <5
:WOOD R AT GIBBON NE 3ENE
GBBN1              15.0  16.0  16.5    29   36   24   32   21   25
:WOOD R AT ALDA 1SW
ALDN1              10.0  11.0  12.2    36   44   33   37   22   28
:WOOD R DIVERSION AT GRAND ISLAND NE
GIDN1              19.5  20.5  21.5     8   24    6   13    5   10
:PLATTE R AT GRAND ISLAND NE 5SE
GRIN1               6.5   7.0   7.5    32   32   19   25   17   18
:PLATTE R AT DUNCAN NE 2S
DNCN1               8.0   9.0  10.0    17   13    9   11    5    7
:SHELL CR AT COLUMBUS NE 8NE
CLBN1              30.0  31.0  32.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT NORTH BEND NE
NBDN1               8.0  10.0  11.5     9   18   <5    6   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT LESHARA NE 1SE
LESN1               8.0  10.0  12.0    11   20   <5    5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT ASHLAND NE 3NE
ASLN1              20.0  22.0  23.5    12   24   <5    6   <5    5
:SALT CR AT ROCA NE
ROCN1              19.0  21.5  23.0     7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT LINCOLN NE 27TH ST
LCNN1              20.5  26.5  29.0     6    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT GREENWOOD NE 1W
GRNN1              20.0  24.0  31.0    19   31    6    7   <5   <5
:WAHOO CR AT ITHACA NE
ITHN1              19.0  20.5  23.0    33   50   30   44   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT ASHLAND NE
ASTN1              20.0  21.0  26.0    17   33   10   24   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT LOUISVILLE NE
LOUN1               9.0  11.0  12.0    16   33   <5    6   <5    5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0316 Z DH12 /DC2403111547/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ELKHORN R
EWIN1       2.5/    2.5/    3.3/    5.0/    6.7/    8.3/    8.7
NLIN1       2.7/    4.2/    5.2/    6.5/    8.3/   10.0/   10.9
NFKN1       2.8/    3.3/    4.2/    5.3/    6.9/    8.4/    8.8

:N FK ELKHORN R
PRCN1       2.6/    2.7/    3.4/    5.2/    6.8/    9.3/   10.1

:ELKHORN R
PLGN1       7.0/    7.3/    8.0/    9.2/    9.5/   10.5/   11.2
WPNN1       4.0/    4.3/    4.6/    7.4/    8.5/   10.5/   11.5
WLON1       9.4/    9.6/   10.9/   12.9/   15.1/   16.3/   17.6

:LOGAN CR
UEHN1       3.5/    4.2/    6.1/    8.6/   10.9/   12.2/   12.6

:MAPLE CR
NKRN1       2.4/    2.7/    5.1/    7.0/    8.0/   10.8/   15.1

:ELKHORN R
WTRN1       2.8/    3.4/    5.1/    8.6/   11.5/   14.8/   15.3

:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL
BDYN1       2.2/    3.2/    4.6/    6.5/    8.6/   11.6/   12.3

:PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR
DARN1       6.8/    7.6/    8.5/   10.4/   12.5/   15.2/   16.3

:PLATTE R
OVTN1       3.8/    3.9/    4.4/    5.7/    7.8/   10.8/   11.9
KEAN1       3.1/    3.2/    3.5/    4.6/    6.1/    7.9/    8.3

:WOOD R
GBBN1       4.2/    4.2/    5.1/    9.8/   15.9/   17.6/   18.3
ALDN1       4.5/    4.5/    5.0/    8.5/   12.1/   13.0/   13.4

:WOOD R DIVERSION
GIDN1      10.9/   10.9/   12.0/   14.8/   17.5/   19.2/   21.4

:PLATTE R
GRIN1       3.9/    4.0/    4.2/    5.3/    6.8/    8.2/    9.1
DNCN1       3.9/    4.1/    4.5/    5.4/    7.2/    8.9/   10.0

:SHELL CR
CLBN1      10.6/   10.6/   15.8/   23.5/   27.4/   28.6/   29.6

:PLATTE R
NBDN1       3.6/    3.8/    4.6/    5.5/    7.1/    7.9/    9.0
LESN1       4.4/    4.5/    5.3/    6.2/    7.5/    8.1/    8.8
ASLN1      15.0/   15.2/   16.8/   18.2/   19.3/   20.8/   21.1

:SALT CR
ROCN1       1.5/    1.5/    2.5/    4.8/   12.6/   16.7/   20.4
LCNN1       2.3/    2.3/    3.1/    6.6/   13.4/   16.7/   23.6
GRNN1       2.2/    2.3/    3.6/    8.4/   17.1/   21.1/   25.1

:WAHOO CR
ITHN1       3.5/    3.5/    5.0/   10.0/   21.8/   22.3/   22.5

:SALT CR
ASTN1       7.1/    7.2/    8.5/   13.5/   18.1/   21.0/   21.7

:PLATTE R
LOUN1       3.9/    4.0/    5.3/    6.8/    8.3/    9.5/    9.9
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0316 Z DH12 /DC2403111547/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ELKHORN R
EWIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.7/    1.6
NLIN1       2.2/    2.2/    1.9/    1.3/    0.8/    0.7/    0.6
NFKN1       2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3

:N FK ELKHORN R
PRCN1       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2

:ELKHORN R
PLGN1       6.9/    6.9/    6.8/    6.7/    6.4/    6.3/    6.3
WPNN1       3.7/    3.6/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
WLON1       8.8/    8.8/    8.3/    8.2/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7

:LOGAN CR
UEHN1       2.7/    2.7/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2

:MAPLE CR
NKRN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2

:ELKHORN R
WTRN1       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.6/    1.4/    1.4

:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL
BDYN1       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0

:PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR
DARN1       4.9/    3.6/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:PLATTE R
OVTN1       2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
KEAN1       2.9/    2.8/    2.4/    2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1

:WOOD R
GBBN1       4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1
ALDN1       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3

:WOOD R DIVERSION
GIDN1      10.9/   10.9/   10.8/   10.8/   10.7/   10.7/   10.7

:PLATTE R
GRIN1       3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
DNCN1       3.6/    3.6/    3.4/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1

:SHELL CR
CLBN1      10.6/   10.6/   10.6/   10.5/   10.5/   10.5/   10.5

:PLATTE R
NBDN1       3.1/    3.1/    2.6/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1
LESN1       4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5
ASLN1      14.4/   14.4/   14.3/   14.2/   14.1/   13.9/   13.8

:SALT CR
ROCN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5
LCNN1       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
GRNN1       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1

:WAHOO CR
ITHN1       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:SALT CR
ASTN1       7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0

:PLATTE R
LOUN1       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$



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