Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FGUS64 KTUA 281537
ESGICT

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1035 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  05/28/2015 - 08/26/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
GTBK1            12.0   16.0   18.3    12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HCHK1             8.0   13.0   19.0    17    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HAVK1            10.0   11.0   12.0    21    8    7    6   <5    5
DRBK1            12.0   15.0   16.2    14    6    6   <5   <5   <5
MULK1            16.5   19.0   21.0    18    6    6   <5   <5   <5
OXFK1            17.0   20.0   23.0    26    7    7   <5   <5   <5
ARCK1            11.0   17.0   21.0    58   35    7    6   <5   <5

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1            24.0   25.0   25.7    11   <5    7   <5   <5   <5

:Cow Creek
LYNK1            18.0   22.0   24.7    33    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1            22.0   25.0   27.0    42   14   22    8   <5   <5
HTDK1            25.0   27.0   29.0    24    8   11   <5   <5   <5
SEDK1            22.0   25.0   26.0    21    9   11   <5    8   <5

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1            18.0   22.0   24.0    26   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1             8.0   10.0   12.0    38   17   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Ninnescah River
PECK1            17.0   21.0   26.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLPK1            23.0   24.5   26.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Whitewater River
TOWK1            22.0   25.0   28.0    26   15   15    9    5   <5
AGSK1            21.0   25.0   30.0    18   12   11    7    5   <5

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1            21.0   22.0   24.0    19   15   17   13   13    9

:Walnut River
EDEK1            19.0   23.0   25.6     5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AGAK1            23.0   28.0   36.0    21   17    8    7   <5   <5
WFDK1            18.0   22.0   29.0    36   22   23   17   13    9
ARKK1            18.0   22.0   28.0    24   15   10    5   <5   <5

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1            10.0   19.0   28.0    48   21   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Fall River
FRNK1            17.0   27.0   36.0    38   28   15   13   <5   <5

:Verdigris River
ATOK1            19.0   21.0   26.0    25   19    8    7   <5   <5
IDPK1            30.0   47.6   53.0    33   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
CFVK1            18.0   23.0   26.5    25   24    9    7   <5   <5

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1            22.0   27.0   32.0    37   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
CTWK1             9.0   11.0   18.0    48   29   33   20   <5   <5
PLYK1            32.0   34.0   37.0    51   28   25   11   <5   <5

:Neosho River
IOLK1            15.0   21.0   27.0    31   35   <5   11   <5   <5
CNUK1            23.0   28.5   35.0    49   44   31   25   <5   <5
EREK1            29.0   32.0   36.0    51   43   42   35   29   25
PPFK1            21.0   23.0   32.0    >95  56   64   50   <5   <5
OSWK1            17.0   20.0   25.0    >95  54   >95  40    8    8

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0528 Z DH12 /DC201505281535/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  05/28/2015 - 08/26/2015
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
GTBK1    6.1/   6.1/   6.1/   6.5/   9.3/  12.5/  13.6
HCHK1    5.2/   5.2/   5.2/   6.0/   7.4/   8.6/   9.4
HAVK1    7.3/   7.3/   7.3/   8.3/   9.8/  10.6/  11.6
DRBK1    6.4/   6.4/   6.4/   8.1/  10.2/  12.8/  15.7
MULK1   11.1/  11.1/  11.2/  13.2/  15.4/  18.0/  19.7
OXFK1   13.0/  13.0/  13.4/  15.0/  17.2/  19.0/  21.2
ARCK1   10.1/  10.1/  10.1/  11.5/  13.5/  15.9/  17.9

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1   11.1/  11.1/  11.1/  13.5/  19.6/  24.7/  25.3

:Cow Creek
LYNK1   16.9/  16.9/  16.9/  17.4/  18.3/  18.9/  19.1

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1   15.7/  15.7/  15.7/  20.8/  24.7/  26.3/  26.8
HTDK1   18.2/  18.2/  18.2/  21.0/  24.9/  27.2/  28.0
SEDK1   12.6/  12.6/  12.6/  15.7/  21.1/  25.5/  27.5

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1   11.3/  11.3/  13.2/  15.7/  18.2/  19.6/  19.9

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1    4.5/   4.8/   6.0/   7.2/   8.9/   9.5/   9.7

:Ninnescah River
PECK1    6.3/   6.5/   9.1/  11.7/  14.4/  16.4/  17.2
BLPK1   12.5/  12.5/  14.9/  17.2/  19.9/  22.1/  23.4

:Whitewater River
TOWK1    4.8/   5.7/   9.0/  14.7/  22.6/  26.3/  28.1
AGSK1    6.2/   6.9/   8.9/  11.7/  16.9/  26.0/  30.3

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1    7.5/   7.5/   8.3/  12.4/  17.9/  25.6/  32.6

:Walnut River
EDEK1    2.9/   3.0/   3.7/   7.2/  12.0/  13.9/  19.5
AGAK1    7.1/   7.1/   9.1/  16.4/  22.0/  26.9/  30.0
WFDK1    9.0/   9.0/   9.3/  14.0/  21.1/  31.2/  33.5
ARKK1   12.0/  12.0/  12.0/  15.1/  17.9/  22.1/  23.7

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1    4.5/   4.5/   7.9/   9.9/  11.5/  12.9/  13.4

:Fall River
FRNK1    4.6/   4.9/   8.3/  13.0/  21.4/  30.1/  32.9

:Verdigris River
ATOK1   10.2/  10.3/  10.4/  13.5/  19.1/  20.6/  22.2
IDPK1   11.5/  11.6/  12.2/  21.6/  34.3/  40.7/  42.4
CFVK1    4.0/   4.0/   4.5/   9.8/  18.2/  22.9/  25.3

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1    5.6/   6.0/   7.4/  18.4/  25.4/  26.7/  26.9
CTWK1    5.6/   5.6/   5.8/   8.8/  12.2/  14.6/  15.3
PLYK1   15.5/  15.8/  24.8/  32.5/  34.0/  35.0/  35.7

:Neosho River
IOLK1    9.0/   9.6/  10.1/  11.6/  16.2/  19.7/  20.9
CNUK1   11.8/  14.1/  17.4/  22.8/  30.4/  33.1/  34.9
EREK1   17.0/  17.6/  22.3/  29.5/  37.4/  39.3/  41.3
PPFK1   22.1/  22.1/  22.1/  24.3/  26.5/  27.3/  28.1
OSWK1   20.4/  20.4/  20.4/  20.9/  23.5/  24.6/  25.7

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$




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