Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 311516
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1012 AM EDT Wednesday August 31 2016

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
THE SEPTEMBER WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK CALLS FOR GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST OHIO RIVER
FORECAST BASIN.  THE REST OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING KENTUCKY, WEST VIRGINIA,
INDIANA, AND TENNESSEE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT NORMAL SEPTEMBER STREAMFLOWS FOR
THE MONTH.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE OHIO
RIVER FORECAST BASIN.  THE SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK DOESN`T LOOK TO IMPROVE THAT STATUS
QUO.  NORMAL SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN WOULD NOT LEND TO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING HOWEVER, ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD CERTAINLY BRING
ABOUT LOCAL RISES.  SEPTEMBER ALSO IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY MOST ACTIVE TROPICAL
MONTH AND THE TROPICS ARE RATHER ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
VERY GENERALLY, AUGUST PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN HALF.  DRILLING
DOWN TO MORE DETAIL, AREAS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA SAW AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS EQUATED TO AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.  AREAS OF WESTERN OHIO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WERE ABOUT 125 TO 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 4 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL.  ON THE CONVERSE, NORTHERN AND EASTERN
OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE 50 TO 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL AUGUST PRECIPITATION...OR 2 TO 4 INCHES.

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
EASTERN AND NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN GENERALLY DRIER THAN
NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS WHILE EASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
AS IT STANDS AT THE END OF AUGUST, CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN OHIO AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.  ABOVE
NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE OBSERVED IN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL = AVERAGE RAINFALL

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE = ABOVE AVERAGE DEPARTURE

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
POSITIVE TRENDING NEUTRAL = BELOW DEPARTURE GOING TO NORMAL

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
TRENDING LA NINA = BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF MAINSTEM

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
MOST GENERAL INDICATORS AND SOME CLIMATE MODELS LEAN TOWARDS A CONTINUANCE OF
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE OHIO RIVER
FORECAST BASINS. SIGNALS AREN`T AS STRONG FOR THE SOUTHERN BASINS BUT OF COURSE
KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET SOME MOISTURE UP
INTO TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER, THE TROPICS ARE QUITE ACTIVE SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD WORSEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




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