Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 011045
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-012015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.33 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800. CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.25 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.34 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-012015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.32 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.34 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$



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