Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 171847
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY ON THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-180830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-180830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

ARNOTT





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