Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 061959
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...RAIN TONIGHT COOLER ON TUESDAY DRY ON WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE RAIN FOLLOWING WITH IT BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS THE HIGH SITS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT SO THAT BY WEDNESDAY THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-070830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. NUMEROUS
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.54 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......19 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-070830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN PERIODS OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.38 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-070830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2300...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.70 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-070830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.53 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.16 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-070830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN PERIODS OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.42 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.16 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......19 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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