Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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311
FNUS53 KAPX 191911
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Daytime gustiness continues over the next couple of days...

Discussion...This afternoon`s occasionally gusty west winds combined
with low RH values will continue to result in elevated fire danger
through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds gradually subside to
some degree tonight; however, additional gustiness is expected during
the day Friday and at times into the upcoming weekend as a storm system
moves through southern Canada. This system will drag a cold front
across northern Michigan late in the weekend bringing a decent
chance for showers late Saturday night into Sunday.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (670).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (480).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$





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