Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 260941
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...BECOMING MORE HUMID WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES...

.DISCUSSION...

MUGGIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SPORADIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER TODAY...AND WILL
REMAIN AT SIMILAR LEVELS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-262100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-262100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.12 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-262100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-262100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.15 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-262100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
541 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1200. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.14 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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