Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FNUS86 KSGX 231123
FWLSGX
SGXWRKECC
WORK DISCUSSION FOR SAN DIEGO FIRE WEATHER ECC DISPATCH FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
323 AM PDT SUN NOV 23 2014

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##           ECC033, ECC034 or ECC035-                  ##
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##                LAXECCSGX                             ##
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## (note that ECC033, etc. are no longer separate PILs) ##
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##    No action is required if you like the current     ##
##    discussions in the fire weather forecast (and     ##
##    they apply to Phoenix`s part of the ECC034 too).  ##
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SUMMARY OF FWF DISCUSSIONS

Discussion from LAXFWFSGX


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE TODAY AND BE LOWEST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES.


Discussion from LAXFWFLOX

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT, STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 30
MPH.

MEANWHILE, DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE RANGES NEAR THE KERN
COUNTY LINE...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE
THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
INCLUDING THE MONTECITO AREA, HUMIDITIES WILL INITIALLY START OUT
WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THEN FALL TO AROUND
20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND TO NEAR 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE RIDGES AFTER
DAWN SUNDAY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE THE
REQUIRED 6 HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-15% HUMIDITIES, GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS IT WAS
FELT THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WAS JUSTIFIED.

ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER,
COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST AREAS ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THE
INITIAL SURGE OF SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH
TEENS AND ISOLATED SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 MPH WEAKER THAN SUNDAY BUT WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. THE DRIEST AND WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS BACK UP TO AROUND 60 MPH, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH IN THE
WINDIEST LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST FOR WEDESDAY CALLS FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO
THANKSGIVING THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.


Discussion from SFOFWFHNX

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SIERRA
HIGH COUNTRY AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN MODERATELY HIGH THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY...USHERING
A WARM AND DRY TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.


Discussion from RNOFWFVEF

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WARM CONDITIONS TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE SIERRA
TODAY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.


Discussion from PHXFWFPSR


STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN VERY
DRY AIR BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BIG INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER COMPARED
TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING PART OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGETOPS IN EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND
EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WITH LINGERING BREEZINESS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.


############# Modify the discussions below ###############

ECC033-232323-

DISCUSSION FOR ORANGE ECC DISPATCH
323 AM PDT SUN NOV 23 2014


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE TODAY AND BE LOWEST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

$$

ECC034-232323-

DISCUSSION FOR RIVERSIDE ECC DISPATCH
323 AM PDT SUN NOV 23 2014


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE TODAY AND BE LOWEST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

$$

ECC035-232323-

DISCUSSION FOR MONTE VISTA ECC DISPATCH
323 AM PDT SUN NOV 23 2014


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE TODAY AND BE LOWEST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

$$




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