Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 171307
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Owen Millpond...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
907 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast today through
Friday. A frontal boundary moves into the area by Friday night, then
stalls across the region over the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming southwest 6 to 10 mph
                    with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL, increasing to 5800-6200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 10 mph, becoming southwest 12 to 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............0   1   2   1   0   4   8   12
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................79  84  86  88  90  91  91  92
RH..................60  51  46  43  41  40  38  37
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......2   3   5   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   10  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft).......2.2 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2
Transp wind dir.....SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....8   10  12  12  12  13  13  14
LVORI...............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................23  35  42  47  37  40  43  47
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....16  29  40  49  58  62  68  75

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......3400-4800 ft AGL, decreasing to 300-2000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............12  13  13  10  8   5   6   8   9   11  13  15
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................89  87  82  78  75  73  72  71  69  69  68  66
RH..................42  45  55  62  69  73  76  81  87  87  90  97
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......4.8 3.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....16  17  18  16  14  13  13  13  14  14  13  12
LVORI...............1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   7
ADI.................64  12  8   7   6   5   6   9   9   9   6   5
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....66  51  32  23  14  8   6   5   4   4   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1800 ft AGL, increasing to 4900-5200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............20     29     24     20     17     20
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................65     69     77     83     86     89
RH..................100    87     64     51     45     42
20 ft wind..........SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.....10     15     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    400    1800   3300   4900   5100
Transport wind......SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  SW 14  SW 17  SW 18
LVORI...............9      5      2      1      1      1
ADI.................5      9      27     35     51     55
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/1000....3      4      19     40     72     79

$$
Forecaster...ALBRIGHT
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709621.0/AKQ
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org


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