Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 221216
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 7B BURN...USDA-US FOREST SERVICE (USFS)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-55 PERCENT)...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (65-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
                    OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-4100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 21
                    TO 26 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............44  42  42  42  68  68  68  82  82  82
WEATHER COV.........                LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................55  61  66  70  73  75  77  78  77  74
RH..................72  56  47  39  37  36  36  36  40  48
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  60  60  60  60
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......3   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  12  12  15  20  20  20  20
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  9   10  15  21  25  26  25  24
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   7   9   16  34  59  87  92  90  87
LVORI...............3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................5   5   14  20  30  49  67  73  73  72
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-1000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH...DECREASING TO 14 TO 22
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 25
                    TO 30 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............71  71  71  44  44  44  18  18  18  15  15  15
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................74  71  67  64  61  58  56  55  53  52  52  50
RH..................46  51  59  63  70  75  77  80  86  83  77  77
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60  60  60  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 2.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......10  8   7   8   10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....24  23  22  20  16  14  16  18  22  25  28  30
VRATE KT-FT/1000....71  45  19  15  12  10  10  10  11  12  14  15
LVORI...............1   1   2   3   4   4   4   3   4   3   3   3
ADI.................61  47  28  23  14  13  14  17  20  22  24  26
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH...INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5000 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28 TO 31 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............21  21  21  21  21  21  18  18  18  12  12  12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................49  50  50  53  56  58  61  62  63  63  65  63
RH..................74  66  61  56  51  47  41  36  32  31  28  28
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.0 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  13  14  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  25  25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....31  31  31  31  29  28  28  28  28  29  30  30
VRATE KT-FT/1000....27  39  51  71  88  103 107 112 119 123 127 131
LVORI...............3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................28  35  35  41  75  79  80  82  84  87  90  92
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MCCLELLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.TA7BB.01/AKQ






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